Tropical Storm Chris

#401 Postby **drezee** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:23 pm

1008mb

300
URNT11 KNHC 011821
97779 18174 30176 60800 03000 99005 25258 /0008
41210
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 04

#402 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:23 pm

skysummit wrote:
Roxy wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

Derek are you not buying that it might dissipate?

Good question....also Derek, I know you're asked this thousands of times, but with the ridge building to the north and warm SSTs in the gulf, do you see an intensifying system in the Gulf?

I know Derek should answer but I think that is a YES.

wxmann_91 · #403 Postby **wxmann_91** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:23 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:*sigh*

Almost a week out.....And the current shear map is causing worries...??

We need to add that to our "this season will be famous for..." thread.

However, right now it seems that a new blob of convection has formed over the LLC, while the convection to the east is dying.

#404 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:of course this is going into the GOM. That is clear as crystal with the steering pattern. In fact, I even put out a special post at PNJ alerting to this possibility

Derek I agree with you on this also - it is going to get into the GOM and graze South Florida, probably passing through the straits.

Unfortunately Derek I also agree. This thing looks to make a beeline straight for the Gulf -- if it doesn't dissipate first. We still have plenty of time to watch, though.

Scorpion · #405 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:24 pm

So NHC was pretty on with the 1009 pressure.

Derek Ortt · #406 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:24 pm

Too soon to say what the shear will be.

I do not know how strong this will be when it nears South Florida (assuming it doesn't pull a Debby and bury itself over Hispaniola)

StormsAhead · #407 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:24 pm

1008mb at 17.6N 60.8W. Probably the lowest pressure.

#408 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:24 pm

drezee wrote:1008mb

300
URNT11 KNHC 011821
97779 18174 30176 60800 03000 99005 25258 /0008
41210
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 04

how do you know its 1008mb?

#409 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:25 pm

A vortex message comming shortly.

#410 Postby **Canelaw99** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:25 pm

drezee wrote:We definitley have a center...

1817 1737N 06047W 00300 5029 260 003 244 244 005 00282 0000000000

17.6 60.8

WTG NHC! They were almost spot on in the 2pm advisory:

"AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA."

#411 Postby **gatorcane** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:25 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Too soon to say what the shear will be.

I do not know how strong this will be when it nears South Florida (assuming it doesn't pull a Debby and bury itself over Hispaniola)

Derek any chance South Florida Miami-Dade, Broward, and/or Palm Beach will see hurricane-force winds from Chris?

Scorpion · #412 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:25 pm

That's a pretty high pressure, compared to storms last year which started off at around 1003 mb.

#413 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:25 pm

Fact ask the same question at discussion thread of recon.

#414 Postby **seaswing** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:25 pm

I personally do not think it will dissipate before it gets into the GOM.

#415 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:Too soon to say what the shear will be.

I do not know how strong this will be when it nears South Florida (assuming it doesn't pull a Debby and bury itself over Hispaniola)

Derek any chance South Florida Miami-Dade, Broward, and/or Palm Beach will see hurricane-force winds from Chris?

I think that ultimately depends on Chris' path and intensity. That's why we still need to watch.

#416 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:26 pm

Pressure gradient needs to wind up. Bird had 20+kts almost all the way to the system.

#417 Postby **drezee** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:27 pm

This is more than likely a tropical storm...it probably has a 10mb pressure gradient to use.

x-y-no · #418 Postby **x-y-no** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:27 pm

Scorpion wrote:That's a pretty high pressure, compared to storms last year which started off at around 1003 mb.

Yeah, it's nothing to write home about. But remember the overall pressure in the area is pretty high, so there's still a fair gradient.

StormsAhead · #419 Postby **StormsAhead** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:27 pm

URNT11 KNHC 011825
97779 18194 30176 60600 03000 18043 23238 /0009
41645
RMK AF303 0103A CHRIS OB 05

45 knots surface in the NE quad

WindRunner · #420 Postby **WindRunner** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 1:28 pm

x-y-no wrote:
Scorpion wrote:That's a pretty high pressure, compared to storms last year which started off at around 1003 mb.

Yeah, it's nothing to write home about. But remember the overall pressure in the area is pretty high, so there's still a fair gradient.

And also remember that the basin-wide pressure last year was unusually low.

Tropical Storm Chris

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