Tropical Storm Chris

[Extremeweatherguy]

11am = still 65mph (guess they are waiting on further recon for an upgrade), pressure still 1001mb.

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR AND HIGH-RESOLUTION
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT CHRIS IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9
KT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAST
RECON-MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 67 KT AND DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF
3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. CIRRUS MOTIONS INDICATE THAT CHRIS
CONTINUES TO BE EXPERIENCING SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR. ON THE
PREDICTED TRACK...AND BASED ON THE 200 MB WIND FORECAST FROM THE
GFS...CHRIS WILL BE IN A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER-LEVEL
CYCLONES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS IS A REASONABLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...SO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE LATEST
SHIPS GUIDANCE AND A LITTLE ABOVE THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE PREDICTION.
AS ALWAYS...IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL.

LATEST CENTER FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INITIAL HEADING OR
SPEED. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHILE A RATHER STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDS
TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS. THIS KIND OF FLOW PATTERN WOULD STEER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. HOWEVER AN
EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED...
THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE
SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. WHEREAS THE GFDL IS A
HIGHLY CREDIBLE MODEL...THE MOST PRUDENT COURSE AT THIS TIME IS TO
USE THE CONSENSUS OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THIS IS ALSO
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 19.2N 63.4W 55 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 19.8N 64.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 20.3N 66.4W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 20.8N 68.0W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 21.4N 70.1W 70 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 22.5N 74.5W 70 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 23.5N 79.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 24.5N 83.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[mtm4319]

Chris may be hitting a pocket of Saharan air this afternoon/tonight:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg

[Extremeweatherguy]

11am track:

[skufful]

Chris may be hitting a pocket of Saharan air this afternoon/tonight:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg

I Don't see that.

[skufful]

Chris may be hitting a pocket of Saharan air this afternoon/tonight:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.jpg

I Don't see that.

That "edit" does however make a difference in what I see.

[swimaster20]

No, the track EWG posted from WxUnderground is the correct 11 Am track.

[gtalum]

The points are always 3 hours previous to the forecast time.

[mtm4319]

What's making the NHC forecast this to stay at lower cat-1 intensity for 4 whole days?

[cjrciadt]

What's making the NHC forecast this to stay at lower cat-1 intensity for 4 whole days?

From the latest advisory: "IT SHOULD BE RECALLED THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY
FORECASTS AT 3-5 DAYS HAVE LITTLE SKILL" Dont be shocked if it is a little conserative.

[dwg71]

What's making the NHC forecast this to stay at lower cat-1 intensity for 4 whole days?

discussion mentions some northerly shear to be a player for a while. Not much but some.

[cheezyWXguy]

i would at least put it at 100mph at day 5 when at the GOM, assuming this thing continues to strengthen at least 10mph a day

[PTrackerLA]

If it's at the Monday 8am position as a major cane there will be major panic ensuing along the gulf coast. I have a feeling New Orleans will be begin to evacuate Sunday.

[Scorpion]

The NHC likes to be conservative until it is a sure thing that it won't impact Hispaniola.

[gtalum]

What's making the NHC forecast this to stay at lower cat-1 intensity for 4 whole days?

Land interaction and shear would be my guess.

[Brent]

What's making the NHC forecast this to stay at lower cat-1 intensity for 4 whole days?

I'm not entirely sure. I think they are going along with the models though... there's no way if it follows that track it'll only be 70 kt on Monday Morning IMO.

[dwg71]

i would at least put it at 100mph, assuming this thing continues to strengthen at least 10mph a day

you cannot assume that...it could increase by 50 one day or decrease by 10.

[cheezyWXguy]

thats why i said ASSUMING it conitnues to strengthen at a graudual pace...yesterday it strengthened 25mph more...I think its possible

[DESTRUCTION5]

Where the heck is out Advisory thread?

[StormWarning1]

I think the NHC is waiting for better model guidance and for the storm to move North of the Domincan Rep. before increasing day 4 and 5 windspeeds. The GFDL has it going over the DR and they like that model. I don't think it will move over the DR.