Tropical Storm Chris

[flhurricaneguy]

i just hope it makes westerly turn because if it continues wnw its headed for florida

[Blown Away]

When is the next run for the GFDL!

[tracyswfla]

When is the next run for the GFDL!

I think it was run at 2am?? How often do they run them?

[Stratosphere747]

There is a possiblity that if both Highs are strong enough, that Chris might not even hit the CONUS....

[clfenwi]

When is the next run for the GFDL!

I think it was run at 2am?? How often do they run them?

Every six hours. The 12Z run will be out at around 1:30 PM...

[kenl01]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

Well............

some of you might not get your big hurricane afterall. New model run shows some of them hitting the DR head on (or trending further south). IF this is true, we'd be talking much weaker storm................


"HOWEVER AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED... THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. "

Do I still smell dissipation ??

[cycloneye]

Here is a clean thread for the data from the afternoon mission that takesoff arounfd 1 PM EDT from St Croix. If any member has a question or comments about the data you can do so at the thread for discussions about the recon mission that is posted in the Talking Tropics forum.

[storms in NC]

IMO it will be very close to PR but will stay to the east side of there.

[cycloneye]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

Above is the plan of the day for tommorow and friday.

[GalvestonDuck]

Awww...is the poor wittle storm gonna go pfffft!

*rolling eyes* (not at you, Ken...the storm)

[kenl01]

Awww...is the poor wittle storm gonna go pfffft!

*rolling eyes* (not at you, Ken...the storm)

[txwatcher91]

Quick question regarding Chris. Is it me or does Chris appear to be becoming annular? There is very little banding on satellite and it has that "buzzsaw" kind of look.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

[stormtruth]

Awww...is the poor wittle storm gonna go pfffft!

*rolling eyes* (not at you, Ken...the storm)

[Scorpion]

Quick question regarding Chris. Is it me or does Chris appear to be becoming annular? There is very little banding on satellite and it has that "buzzsaw" kind of look.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg

Way too early for that.

[cheezyWXguy]

no...thats the same amount of models in to DR as last time.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Well............

some of you might not get your big hurricane afterall. New model run shows some of them hitting the DR head on (or trending further south). IF this is true, we'd be talking much weaker storm................


"HOWEVER AN EVEN STRONGER RIDGE WOULD LIKELY DRIVE CHRIS WESTWARD. INDEED... THIS IS THE SCENARIO OFFERED BY THE GFDL MODEL WHICH EVEN TURNS THE SYSTEM WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR A WHILE. "

Do I still smell dissipation ??

Only 4 models show this going right into the DR (3 of which are not reliable models in this kind of situation). Until there is more model agreement I doubt this will happen (and the NHC doubts it too; thus their more northern track).

[gtalum]

Way too early for that.

What, you mean Tropical Storms don't go annular?

[flhurricaneguy]

i dont know about it going annular but i do see the buzzsaw look

[Derek Ortt]

this isnt hitting the DR... too much of a weakness from the UL to allow for that

[PTrackerLA]

Derek I know it's still VERY early but do you see Chris as being more of a Western GOM threat than say Alabama eastward? It sure seems like the upper air pattern is setting up for that.