Tropical Storm Chris

[rockyman]

My secretary's husband just called and said that his rig south of Louisiana is being evacuated beginning Saturday.

[WindRunner]

It looks like they might be taking off a few minutes early, possibly to try for a fix by 2pm, like clfenwi was saying.

[HouTXmetro]

Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin.

I find that statement about recurve towards the panhandle just plain stupid! Im sorry...Your NOT going to budge a 594+DM ridge, I don't care how strong this gets.

there could be a weakness that a strong Chris will take advantage of. HOWEVER, that weakness shouldn't last long and I don't see Chris making it that far north to the panhandle before being shunted back West toward LA or TX. Just my Opinion based on the various dicussions i'm hearing by pro- mets on this board.

[deltadog03]

Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin.

I find that statement about recurve towards the panhandle just plain stupid! Im sorry...Your NOT going to budge a 594+DM ridge, I don't care how strong this gets.

there could be a weakness that a strong Chris will take advantage of. HOWEVER, that weakness shouldn't last long and I don't see Chris making it that far north to the panhandle before being shunted back West toward LA or TX. Just my Opinion based on the various dicussions i'm hearing by pro- mets on this board.

Sure, there could be a weakness but, after the way this summer has gone and the way the ridge has been really strong I just don't see it ATTM. BUT** your right about the weakness.

[LightningInTheEye]

When do the new computer models come out?

[cycloneye]

It looks like they might be taking off a few minutes early, possibly to try for a fix by 2pm, like clfenwi was saying.

Agree.And also being more close now to St Croix that yesterday will allow them to have a fix before the 2 PM Advisory.

[clfenwi]

It appears that the 12Z NOGAPS has shifted its forecast track a little bit to the south, keeping the center of the storm off of Peninsular Florida. Depending on what the output of the UKMET model is, there could be a GUNS consensus that is somewhat attractive to peninsular Florida residents (but not to residents of the Keys).

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006080212

[Scorpion]

I'm glad that I'm not one of those people already getting supplies ready. IMO this will not impact peninsular Florida.

[tgenius]

It appears that the 12Z NOGAPS has shifted its forecast track a little bit to the south, keeping the center of the storm off of Peninsular Florida. Depending on what the output of the UKMET model is, there could be a GUNS consensus that is somewhat attractive to peninsular Florida residents (but not to residents of the Keys).

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006080212

I think we need the G IV environment data before the models are worth a lick.. has NOGAPS or UKMET initialized correctly?

[WindRunner]

I'm starting to get a little uncomfortable with all the talk that this storm could follow the same path that Andrew did in 92.... and its coming from alot of different people too, not just amateurs..

For my information, could you please explain who these "different people" are (that are "not just amateurs" ) who confirm an Andrew-like scenario for southern Florida?

Well.. I'm under the assumption that people on Marster's blog are legit, perhaps i'm a lil too guillible/naive when it comes to weather

Yeah, those people making comments have no more skill than most of the people here do.

[Rainband]

I'm glad that I'm not one of those people already getting supplies ready. IMO this will not impact peninsular Florida.

Supplies should have been ready on June 1rst. For what it's worth, Anything is possible but right now I think the Keys are in the greatest threat area. The more northern motion of late is interesting though. Recon will give us a better idea of whats going on.

[jusforsean]

So I am confused I thought it was shifting a bit more north making it worse for southflorida, but now its going to go under us?? I think we will know more after tommorrow, I hope. Its scary that the models are acting so crazy, I kinda like when they are in agreeance with eachother and the NHC

[WindRunner]

Hmmm . . . well, we haven't received any further transmissions from the plane. They are scheduled to be taking off now, so hopefully the data flow will resume shortly.

[clfenwi]

/me taps his watch and coughs in a discrete manner, just loudly enough to be heard in St. Croix

[bvigal]

Lime Tree Bay on shore of St. Croix. The 55kt is probably an error. I check this buoy every morning, transmit errors are not unusual.

I didn't keep stocked up on ALL my hurricane supplies, thus had to take time yesterday to fill water bottles and buy stuff, when I really didn't want to spare the time from other things. Once I finished my list, I was fine. Those who are stressing over what Chris may do, perhaps if you make a list and start on it, you will feel just a tiny bit better. Can't hurt, right? I hope Chris just fizzles, but really doesn't look probable.

[brunota2003]

I'm glad that I'm not one of those people already getting supplies ready. IMO this will not impact peninsular Florida.

Supplies should have been ready on June 1rst. For what it's worth, Anything is possible but right now I think the Keys are in the greatest threat area. The more northern motion of late is interesting though. Recon will give us a better idea of whats going on.

I agree, if you dont have your hurricane kit ready you need to finish it NOW...not later, as if you wait until later, stress will be higher and chances of you finishing in time before the storm hits will be low (whatever I'm trying to say...) as for the storm, I see IMHO maybe a very southern Florida threat...but would prefer to wait until the G-IV jet's data tonight gets into the model runs...

[brunota2003]

Come on recon...go go go go...take off, we need to know how the storm is doing...please?

[clfenwi]

1644. 1742N 06449W 00141 0017 278 007 258 242 008 00169 0000000000

and they're off...

[WindRunner]

Data up . . . but 13 minutes old.

[cycloneye]

They are in the air now.