Tropical Storm Chris

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rockyman
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#1741 Postby rockyman » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:44 am

My secretary's husband just called and said that his rig south of Louisiana is being evacuated beginning Saturday.
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#1742 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:46 am

It looks like they might be taking off a few minutes early, possibly to try for a fix by 2pm, like clfenwi was saying.
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#1743 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:46 am

deltadog03 wrote:Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin.

I find that statement about recurve towards the panhandle just plain stupid! Im sorry...Your NOT going to budge a 594+DM ridge, I don't care how strong this gets.


there could be a weakness that a strong Chris will take advantage of. HOWEVER, that weakness shouldn't last long and I don't see Chris making it that far north to the panhandle before being shunted back West toward LA or TX. Just my Opinion based on the various dicussions i'm hearing by pro- mets on this board.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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#1744 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:47 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Unfortunately for this portion of the Gulf Coast, intensifying hurricanes tend to want to turn toward the right (toward the North Pole in the Northern Hemisphere), so if Chris is a strong hurricane as it passes south of Miami late this weekend, it would be more likely to curve toward the Panhandle through the day on Monday. A weaker storm would tend to stay on the more westerly path toward Texas and pass well south of Eglin.

I find that statement about recurve towards the panhandle just plain stupid! Im sorry...Your NOT going to budge a 594+DM ridge, I don't care how strong this gets.


there could be a weakness that a strong Chris will take advantage of. HOWEVER, that weakness shouldn't last long and I don't see Chris making it that far north to the panhandle before being shunted back West toward LA or TX. Just my Opinion based on the various dicussions i'm hearing by pro- mets on this board.


Sure, there could be a weakness but, after the way this summer has gone and the way the ridge has been really strong I just don't see it ATTM. BUT** your right about the weakness.
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#1745 Postby LightningInTheEye » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:49 am

When do the new computer models come out?
Last edited by LightningInTheEye on Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#1746 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:50 am

WindRunner wrote:It looks like they might be taking off a few minutes early, possibly to try for a fix by 2pm, like clfenwi was saying.


Agree.And also being more close now to St Croix that yesterday will allow them to have a fix before the 2 PM Advisory.
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#1747 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:51 am

It appears that the 12Z NOGAPS has shifted its forecast track a little bit to the south, keeping the center of the storm off of Peninsular Florida. Depending on what the output of the UKMET model is, there could be a GUNS consensus that is somewhat attractive to peninsular Florida residents (but not to residents of the Keys).

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006080212
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#1748 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:52 am

I'm glad that I'm not one of those people already getting supplies ready. IMO this will not impact peninsular Florida.
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#1749 Postby tgenius » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:54 am

clfenwi wrote:It appears that the 12Z NOGAPS has shifted its forecast track a little bit to the south, keeping the center of the storm off of Peninsular Florida. Depending on what the output of the UKMET model is, there could be a GUNS consensus that is somewhat attractive to peninsular Florida residents (but not to residents of the Keys).

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... 2006080212


I think we need the G IV environment data before the models are worth a lick.. has NOGAPS or UKMET initialized correctly?
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#1750 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:55 am

tgenius wrote:
LightningInTheEye wrote:
tgenius wrote:I'm starting to get a little uncomfortable with all the talk that this storm could follow the same path that Andrew did in 92.... and its coming from alot of different people too, not just amateurs.. :(


For my information, could you please explain who these "different people" are (that are "not just amateurs" ) who confirm an Andrew-like scenario for southern Florida?


Well.. I'm under the assumption that people on Marster's blog are legit, perhaps i'm a lil too guillible/naive when it comes to weather :D


Yeah, those people making comments have no more skill than most of the people here do.
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#1751 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:57 am

Scorpion wrote:I'm glad that I'm not one of those people already getting supplies ready. IMO this will not impact peninsular Florida.
Supplies should have been ready on June 1rst. For what it's worth, Anything is possible but right now I think the Keys are in the greatest threat area. The more northern motion of late is interesting though. Recon will give us a better idea of whats going on. :wink:
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#1752 Postby jusforsean » Wed Aug 02, 2006 11:58 am

So I am confused I thought it was shifting a bit more north making it worse for southflorida, but now its going to go under us?? I think we will know more after tommorrow, I hope. Its scary that the models are acting so crazy, I kinda like when they are in agreeance with eachother and the NHC
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#1753 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:00 pm

Hmmm . . . well, we haven't received any further transmissions from the plane. They are scheduled to be taking off now, so hopefully the data flow will resume shortly.
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#1754 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:03 pm

/me taps his watch and coughs in a discrete manner, just loudly enough to be heard in St. Croix :P
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#1755 Postby bvigal » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:03 pm

Lime Tree Bay on shore of St. Croix. The 55kt is probably an error. I check this buoy every morning, transmit errors are not unusual.

I didn't keep stocked up on ALL my hurricane supplies, thus had to take time yesterday to fill water bottles and buy stuff, when I really didn't want to spare the time from other things. Once I finished my list, I was fine. Those who are stressing over what Chris may do, perhaps if you make a list and start on it, you will feel just a tiny bit better. Can't hurt, right? I hope Chris just fizzles, but really doesn't look probable.
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#1756 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:04 pm

Rainband wrote:
Scorpion wrote:I'm glad that I'm not one of those people already getting supplies ready. IMO this will not impact peninsular Florida.
Supplies should have been ready on June 1rst. For what it's worth, Anything is possible but right now I think the Keys are in the greatest threat area. The more northern motion of late is interesting though. Recon will give us a better idea of whats going on. :wink:
I agree, if you dont have your hurricane kit ready you need to finish it NOW...not later, as if you wait until later, stress will be higher and chances of you finishing in time before the storm hits will be low (whatever I'm trying to say...:lol:) as for the storm, I see IMHO maybe a very southern Florida threat...but would prefer to wait until the G-IV jet's data tonight gets into the model runs...
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#1757 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:05 pm

Come on recon...go go go go...take off, we need to know how the storm is doing...please? :lol:
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#1758 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:06 pm

1644. 1742N 06449W 00141 0017 278 007 258 242 008 00169 0000000000

and they're off...
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#1759 Postby WindRunner » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:07 pm

Data up . . . but 13 minutes old.
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#1760 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 02, 2006 12:07 pm

They are in the air now. :)
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