Historical Map # 2

Regit · #2 Postby **Regit** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:35 pm

The "no north turns this time of year" is shot.

:lol:

I've heard people say the gulf, based on climatology, needs to be most worried. Seems to me that Cape Hatteras and Savannah need to be most worried based on that.

Of course, once a storm actually spins up, you need to deal with conditions at the time. Climatology as your sole forecasting criteria is useless.

LaBreeze · #3 Postby **LaBreeze** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:36 pm

Almost odd that only one made it into the GOM. Hmmm, interesting.

#4 Postby **Blown Away** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:37 pm

I looked at that map! Seems unlikely based on historical data that a storm will go WNW from NE of the Islands all the way to Texas! Just doesn't happen that often! We will see, if those models start moving slowly N I would say watch out SFL!

Extremeweatherguy · #5 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:37 pm

the pattern is completely different this time though. This one has a slim to none shot of taking a turn north like the others did.

Extremeweatherguy · #6 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:38 pm

Blown_away wrote:I looked at that map! Seems unlikely based on historical data that a storm will go WNW from NE of the Islands all the way to Texas! Just doesn't happen that often! We will see, if those models start moving slowly N I would say watch out SFL!

As the storm moves, these climate maps change also. If this is really south of FL on Sunday, then you will see many past storms working into the Gulf from that position.

Regit · #7 Postby **Regit** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:40 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Blown_away wrote:I looked at that map! Seems unlikely based on historical data that a storm will go WNW from NE of the Islands all the way to Texas! Just doesn't happen that often! We will see, if those models start moving slowly N I would say watch out SFL!
As the storm moves, these climate maps change also. If this is really south of FL on Sunday, then you will see many past storms working into the Gulf from that position.

Well when you're two miles from the gulf, then yeah, it's more likely to get into the gulf.

Sean in New Orleans · #8 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Tue Aug 01, 2006 9:49 pm

The further along the path, THE MORE LIKELY IT MOVES OUT TO SEA, based on the previous map....

f5 · #9 Postby f5 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 1:38 pm

tell 2005 about climotology

#10 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 02, 2006 1:40 pm

Looks like if it hits Florida SE Florida is climatalogically favored.

Historical Map # 2

Historical Map # 2

Who is online