Tropical Storm Chris

[MWatkins]

This was posted in the past 30 minutes, from the Miami WSFO Forecast Discussion:

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...... AT 18Z CHRIS WAS LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISS ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK (ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK ACCORDING TO SJU DOPPLER RADAR). GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH NAM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND NOGAPS BEING THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP A CYCLONE CROSSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WSW TRACK GOING OVER HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY OVER CUBA...NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF IT DOES THIS...IT COULD BE ITS DEMISE.

Other models? The GFDL is the only model suggesting a south of west track. And the latest recon fix is already at 19.6N...the latest 12Z GFDL run doen't have Chris crossing 19.6 for 96 hours.

Nogaps: Fl Straights into gulf
GFS: Fl Straights into gulf...although it is WAY too shallow with the vortex (surprise)
UKMET: The furthest north but with a weakening vortex too
GFDL: Left outlier by far

MW

[f5]

I have a question. 1007mb is awfully high for a 55kt storm. Granted, environmental pressures are high...what's the highest pressure an Atlantic storm ever reached hurricane strength at?

Wilma's winds were low for 882 mb this year it seems to be the opposite

[cheezyWXguy]

I have a question. 1007mb is awfully high for a 55kt storm. Granted, environmental pressures are high...what's the highest pressure an Atlantic storm ever reached hurricane strength at?

I dont know but Danny in 03 had a minimum pressure of 1009 and maximum sustained winds of 75mph

[Grease Monkey]

I would like to see real historical map that goes back 1000 years. Then maybe I would take these historical maps more seriously.

[miamicanes177]

I have a question. 1007mb is awfully high for a 55kt storm. Granted, environmental pressures are high...what's the highest pressure an Atlantic storm ever reached hurricane strength at?

I'm not sure but wilma was a sub 900mb cat 4 hurricane. Winds can be strange sometimes.

[mascpa]

This was posted in the past 30 minutes, from the Miami WSFO Forecast Discussion:

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...... AT 18Z CHRIS WAS LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISS ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK (ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK ACCORDING TO SJU DOPPLER RADAR). GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH NAM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND NOGAPS BEING THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP A CYCLONE CROSSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WSW TRACK GOING OVER HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY OVER CUBA...NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF IT DOES THIS...IT COULD BE ITS DEMISE.

Basically nobody knows where it is headed.

Now THAT is an accurate statement.

[WindRunner]

da - da - da . . . another ob bites the dust . . .

[Air Force Met]

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg.gif

they have the system as an "L" by the time it reaches the tx/la coast...does that mean they think it will weaken as closes in on the coast?

Here is the 7 day loop.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/day0-7loop.html

[stormie_skies]

No offense, but what's up with this weird climo obsession???

You have to look at what is in front of you FIRST, then you might want to take history into consideration - but you have to take into consideration the conditions that exist now!

Its like y'all are looking at a 30 year old road map of an area that has been extensively developed, saying "there can't be a road here! its never been that way!" Maybe it wasn't, but the road is there, you can see it and touch it, and you have to deal with it.

The ridge is there and there's no sign of anything slicing through it. Not to say that its impossible ... but we have to deal with the conditions we have. Climo won't break the ridge. If you see something that will, say so, but its silly to predict a landfall in the panhandle if the upper air conditions just plain won't let that happen.

BTW, here's hopin' Chris is cravin' a Corona in the most desolated desert he can find....

[tgenius]

Are they making it a habit of skipping sets? As long as the NE quad sets are in, that's the meat and potatoes of the whole thing...

[cheezyWXguy]

and that means...

[flhurricaneguy]

i think i am sick of chris, where is the next storm.

[tgenius]

and that means...

The NE quad has the convection that everyone is waiting for to see how strong/weak chris really is.

[mvtrucking]

Agreed SS. Also, Mexico would be a great place for it to go.(A deserted part, if it can find it)

[stormie_skies]

Ack, that loop SUCKS!

[senorpepr]

I have a question. 1007mb is awfully high for a 55kt storm. Granted, environmental pressures are high...what's the highest pressure an Atlantic storm ever reached hurricane strength at?

I'm not sure but wilma was a sub 900mb cat 4 hurricane. Winds can be strange sometimes.

This just made me think... (and I'm not saying anything directed at any given person...)


It's funny how some people think when the NHC has a sub-900mb storm only as a category four, the NHC blew it or that recon missed something, because the winds MUST match the pressure.

However, the same people will complain with the NHC has a 1007mb storm only as a tropical storm because it looks "too good not to be a hurricane."

Bottom line, I think some people have a unique fetish. They only want the strongest storms possible, regardless of what the facts say.

[Starburst]

I have seen a few comments today that some folks do not understand the recon obs etc. hoping this may help

During reconnaissance of tropical system CHRIS a maximum sustained wind speed of 17 mph at 5000 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 20 mph at 5004 feet, were found by the government plane.

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
19:04:30 18.65 -65.58 5000 288 17 17 61 59
19:05:00 18.61 -65.58 5007 286 17 17 61 59
19:05:30 18.58 -65.58 4997 285 17 17 61 58
19:06:00 18.56 -65.58 4997 283 17 18 62 58
19:06:30 18.53 -65.6 5004 282 17 18 62 58
19:07:00 18.5 -65.6 5004 286 17 17 62 58
19:07:30 18.48 -65.6 4994 284 17 17 63 57
19:08:00 18.45 -65.6 5020 284 16 16 63 56
19:08:30 18.45 -65.56 4994 275 16 16 63 56
19:09:00 18.48 -65.55 4987 273 15 15 62 58
19:09:30 18.5 -65.53 5004 277 15 15 62 58
19:10:00 18.51 -65.5 4997 277 14 14 61 59
19:10:30 18.53 -65.48 5004 273 14 14 61 59
19:11:00 18.56 -65.46 4997 271 14 14 61 58
19:11:30 18.58 -65.45 5004 275 14 15 61 59
19:12:00 18.6 -65.41 5000 274 15 15 61 59
19:12:30 18.61 -65.4 5004 274 15 16 61 59
19:13:00 18.63 -65.38 4994 275 16 16 60 60
19:13:30 18.66 -65.36 5004 279 15 16 60 60
19:14:00 18.68 -65.33 5004 294 17 20 56 56


Time is Z time. click here for help on converting to your time zone. Direction is in compass points; 360=North, 180=South.

Surface winds estimates can be calculated based on sustained winds at altitudes, but there are many factors including the size and pressure gradient of the storm.

[JonathanBelles]

i think i am sick of chris, where is the next storm.

excuse me!!!!

[MiamiensisWx]

789
SXXX50 KNHC 021938
AF308 0303A CHRIS HDOB 19 KNHC
1924. 1906N 06455W 01523 0086 314 013 162 162 014 01649 0000000000
1925 1907N 06453W 01526 0085 313 013 168 152 014 01652 0000000000
1925. 1908N 06452W 01523 0085 315 013 166 154 014 01650 0000000000
1926 1909N 06451W 01524 0085 312 014 166 152 014 01650 0000000000
1926. 1910N 06450W 01525 0084 311 015 166 150 015 01650 0000000000
1927 1912N 06448W 01525 0084 313 016 164 154 016 01649 0000000000
1927. 1913N 06447W 01521 0083 309 017 160 154 017 01645 0000000000
1928 1914N 06446W 01525 0083 307 017 160 160 018 01649 0000000000
1928. 1915N 06445W 01525 0083 311 017 160 160 018 01649 0000000000
1929 1916N 06443W 01521 0082 309 020 162 150 020 01643 0000000000
1929. 1917N 06442W 01525 0081 306 021 166 132 022 01647 0000000000
1930 1919N 06441W 01523 0080 299 022 162 134 022 01644 0000000000
1930. 1920N 06440W 01523 0079 309 019 166 158 020 01642 0000000000
1931 1921N 06438W 01526 0078 318 019 172 150 020 01644 0000000000
1931. 1922N 06437W 01523 0076 322 020 176 146 020 01639 0000000000
1932 1923N 06436W 01526 0075 317 018 182 142 019 01642 0000000000
1932. 1925N 06435W 01523 0074 316 023 178 144 023 01638 0000000000
1933 1926N 06434W 01526 0072 316 023 176 140 023 01639 0000000000
1933. 1927N 06432W 01522 0071 314 022 178 144 022 01634 0000000000
1934 1928N 06431W 01525 0069 312 024 172 148 024 01635 0000000000

[robbielyn]

Personally I think it's a typo. 1007 mb. It's still 65mph and it doesn't looked sheared to me.