Frank2 wrote:This was posted in the past 30 minutes, from the Miami WSFO Forecast Discussion:
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...... AT 18Z CHRIS WAS LOCATED A SHORT DISTANCE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISS ON A MAINLY WESTWARD TRACK (ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST TRACK ACCORDING TO SJU DOPPLER RADAR). GLOBAL MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH NAM TAKING THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD...GFS AND UKMET KEEP THE SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARD BUT WEAKENING IT TO AN OPEN WAVE BY THE TIME IT BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA AND NOGAPS BEING THE ONLY ONE TO KEEP A CYCLONE CROSSING THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY SUNDAY. OTHER GUIDANCE LIKE GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM ON A WSW TRACK GOING OVER HISPANIOLA AND EVENTUALLY OVER CUBA...NEEDLESS TO SAY...IF IT DOES THIS...IT COULD BE ITS DEMISE.
Other models? The GFDL is the only model suggesting a south of west track. And the latest recon fix is already at 19.6N...the latest 12Z GFDL run doen't have Chris crossing 19.6 for 96 hours.
Nogaps: Fl Straights into gulf
GFS: Fl Straights into gulf...although it is WAY too shallow with the vortex (surprise)
UKMET: The furthest north but with a weakening vortex too
GFDL: Left outlier by far
MW