Tropical Storm Chris

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AtlanticWind
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2 centers?

#2821 Postby AtlanticWind » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:25 pm

Looks to me like a mid level center may be moving south while the low level center is moving west to wsw. This could easily be a quick demise for Chris.
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#2822 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:26 pm

Looks like the High is Digging in and just as powerful as many of the models have been predicting.
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2823 Postby wxman22 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:26 pm

Goodnight from me to tommorow morning is going to be VERY intresting indeed.................... :eek:
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#2824 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:27 pm

The WV loop shows the situation perfectly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Looks like the system to the NE of Chris is shoving southward. Seems like a complex situation may be setting up though. After it moves southward it could be drawn back NW on the backside of this system. Confusing. I see no signs of decoupling on this loop though (no LLC moving out of the convection mass).
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#2825 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:27 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:It may be decoupling like mentioned.

Don't track the convection. The LLC may be moving away from it.


I think it is. You can see the deep convection moving SW...bt if you look to the west..you can see the weak feeder bands rotating around.

I think we are going to see a big decrease in strength before it gets its act back together. Maybe all the way down to 40 mph eventually. It's gonna have to start all over with building it's core...
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#2826 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:29 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:The WV loop shows the situation perfectly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Looks like the system to the NE of Chris is shoving southward. Seems like a complex situation may be setting up though. After it moves southward it could be drawn back NW on the backside of this system. Confusing. I see no signs of decoupling on this loop though (no LLC moving out of the convection mass).


How are you going to see a LLC on a WV loop?
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#2827 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:29 pm

fact789 wrote:will the recon be available for the 2 am advisory?


It should get a fix in time for it...
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#2828 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:31 pm

Tomorrow morning is going to be VERY interesting. I am really wanting to see what will come of this now. If it is decoupling, then we might see a completely new system set up with the LLC. A whole new Chris could be in order.
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#2829 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:31 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The WV loop shows the situation perfectly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Looks like the system to the NE of Chris is shoving southward. Seems like a complex situation may be setting up though. After it moves southward it could be drawn back NW on the backside of this system. Confusing. I see no signs of decoupling on this loop though (no LLC moving out of the convection mass).


How are you going to see a LLC on a WV loop?
I don't know. Figured it might be like Alberto where you could pick out the swirl.
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#2830 Postby Stratosphere747 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:32 pm

Won't take that long. Recon will find out real quick when it gets in there...
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#2831 Postby Air Force Met » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:32 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Tomorrow morning is going to be VERY interesting. I am really wanting to see what will come of this now. If it is decoupling, then we might see a completely new system set up with the LLC. A whole new Chris could be in order.


Sometimes you have to spit out the old to get the new.

And sometimes things just die.
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#2832 Postby f5 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:33 pm

he doesn't have alot of dark red like last years storms had.i do NOT expect him to have black&white thunderstorm convection like wilma did what a nutty storm she was
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#2833 Postby windycity » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:34 pm

Chris,D.O.A. Sorry, couldnt resist. :lol:
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#2834 Postby Grease Monkey » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:34 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Looks like he can't resist the Puerto Rican women... :D
:roflmao:
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#2835 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:35 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Tomorrow morning is going to be VERY interesting. I am really wanting to see what will come of this now. If it is decoupling, then we might see a completely new system set up with the LLC. A whole new Chris could be in order.


Sometimes you have to spit out the old to get the new.

And sometimes things just die.
that would be the best case scenario, but in these situations there is always that gut instinct that a much stronger system could form (especially with all that low shear just west of the storms location).
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#2836 Postby gerrit » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:36 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Looks like he can't resist the Puerto Rican women... :D
:roflmao:

Yeah, very funny..
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#2837 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:36 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Air Force Met wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:The WV loop shows the situation perfectly:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

Looks like the system to the NE of Chris is shoving southward. Seems like a complex situation may be setting up though. After it moves southward it could be drawn back NW on the backside of this system. Confusing. I see no signs of decoupling on this loop though (no LLC moving out of the convection mass).


How are you going to see a LLC on a WV loop?
I don't know. Figured it might be like Alberto where you could pick out the swirl.



Well if you look at the vis loop (not really that great) you can see some gray lower cloud feeder bands becoming visible to the WNW, IMO. So yes I would have to agree with the unstacking theory. How does it survive through the night after this hicup...thats the real question.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
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#2838 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:37 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
Stratosphere747 wrote:It may be decoupling like mentioned.

Don't track the convection. The LLC may be moving away from it.


I think it is. You can see the deep convection moving SW...bt if you look to the west..you can see the weak feeder bands rotating around.

I think we are going to see a big decrease in strength before it gets its act back together. Maybe all the way down to 40 mph eventually. It's gonna have to start all over with building it's core...


I agree!!! I clearly see a better outflow on the NW side of the system...I agree with you on the LLC is or maybe moving away from the convection.
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#2839 Postby f5 » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:37 pm

gerrit wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Looks like he can't resist the Puerto Rican women... :D
:roflmao:

Yeah, very funny..


he will weaken if he try to go on land and find her
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#2840 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 02, 2006 10:38 pm

so he is not really moving south?
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