The Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands

[shaggy]

new wave is looking BIG but not really concentrated so it will be a new one to watch also!

[wxmann_91]

The Globals have done pretty well with the evolution of the situation here. Also notice the progged lowering of the pressures in Africa. IMO, there's a fairly decent chance that this could be the kick start of the CV season.

[wxmann_91]

In layman's terms, what indicates development on those maps?

Thanks in advance from a curious novice.

Lowering pressures. On an 850mb vort map it will be lumps of increased vorticity.

[SouthFloridawx]

Anyways back to this one...

[SouthFloridawx]

Sorry about the large images, I am at work. 3 of the global models are still developing this wave and they have been for the past 4 days. At least they have been indicating a general pattern of development.

A little bit of dust to the north of it. The dust has moved to a more northern latitude as the Azores High seems to have retreated northward.
As evidence here on the TPC's TWD graphic.. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html



GFS 06Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfs/2 ... /slp24.png

CMC 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//cmc/2 ... /slp24.png

UKMET 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2 ... /slp24.png


*edited by CM to make the image a link - it's too big and we have to scroll to read every post

[SouthFloridawx]

I would hate to see anything get under that Upper Level High out there.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

[Frank2]

Per the above, it would appear that this would recurve early...

[KWT]

Indeed Frank that appears to be what the models are suggesting though I think they are producing a closed circulation too quickly and i wouldn't be suprised to see it form a good deal further west then where the models are showing it forming right now.

[Frank2]

I agree - Steve Lyons was much more concerned about it on Tuesday evening, but, last night backed off from saying anything else about it, perhaps for a similar reason...

Frank

[Scorpion]

I dont know, I think these waves need to form fast or else they encounter unfavorable conditions and just don't form until 60 west or so.

[Scorpion]

The new GFS is much more aggressive.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The new GFS is much more aggressive.

Sure is Holy Cow...

[cycloneye]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.5N 25.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 05.08.2006 10.5N 25.3W WEAK

12UTC 05.08.2006 11.0N 23.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.08.2006 10.8N 30.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.08.2006 11.0N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 07.08.2006 11.0N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

12 UTC UKMET is showing some development of the wave.

[WindRunner]

Interesting. The GFS doesn't develop (at least significatnly) until T+72hrs, though.

And is the UKMET showing it to develop, move east, then south, then west? That'd be one heck of a strange track . . .

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm still monitoring this situation as the globals models keep hinting at some development out in the Eastern Atlantic. I would not be suprised if we see a storm pop in the next few days as we are moving into the months when we need to watch development there.

There was an Azores high that moved more northward that is helping to keep more dust being blown off the African Coast. If you notice in the following graphic from the TPC site for the 805pm TWD.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

000
AXNT20 KNHC 050010
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. UW-CIMMS SAHARAN LAYER ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A FAIRLY DENSE REGION OF DUST AFFECTING THE WAVE. AN OLD QUIK
SCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 11N
THAT WILL BE MONITORED. THE GFS MODEL ALSO INITIALIZES A LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS VICINITY THAT MOVES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY 07/0000 UTC.



GFS 96 Hours


Canadian in 72 Hours


NOGAPS IN 120 HOURS


MM5FSU in 114 Hours


One Inhibiting factor that I noticed with this wave is the High Easterly Windshear to it's south that is making the clouds look all whispy.


Also to note that the Saharan Dust they mentioned before is not as prevalent as it was with some earlier waves that came off of africa, one that eventually spawned Chris.

[SouthFloridawx]

Lot's of Lower Level Convergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

Upper Level Divergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html

850mb Vorticity
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

This looks like it has a chance. May be it will become the first "true" CV storm of the year.

[cajungal]

The Cape Verde Season is not far off. By mid to the end of August, we may have some real monsters that won't get sheared apart like Chris. It gives us something new to talk about. I still think it is exciting at least tracking our first major hurricane of the season as long as it only bothers the fishies.

[Brent]

I think it has a chance too. Nothing like watching a classic CV storm grow far from land.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

These systems can have 40+ Advisories in are interesting. A good cape verde cane hopefully will form. Looking at the quickscat data no LLC has formed yet. Whats on this systems side it the SAL is moving north. So it should not effect it the onlly thing is eastly shear. So I say it has a chance.