The Wave SW of Cape Verde Islands
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- SouthFloridawx
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- SouthFloridawx
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Sorry about the large images, I am at work. 3 of the global models are still developing this wave and they have been for the past 4 days. At least they have been indicating a general pattern of development.
A little bit of dust to the north of it. The dust has moved to a more northern latitude as the Azores High seems to have retreated northward.
As evidence here on the TPC's TWD graphic.. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
GFS 06Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfs/2 ... /slp24.png
CMC 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//cmc/2 ... /slp24.png
UKMET 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2 ... /slp24.png
*edited by CM to make the image a link - it's too big and we have to scroll to read every post
A little bit of dust to the north of it. The dust has moved to a more northern latitude as the Azores High seems to have retreated northward.
As evidence here on the TPC's TWD graphic.. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
GFS 06Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfs/2 ... /slp24.png
CMC 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//cmc/2 ... /slp24.png
UKMET 00Z
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//ukm/2 ... /slp24.png
*edited by CM to make the image a link - it's too big and we have to scroll to read every post
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- SouthFloridawx
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I would hate to see anything get under that Upper Level High out there.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg
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Indeed Frank that appears to be what the models are suggesting though I think they are producing a closed circulation too quickly and i wouldn't be suprised to see it form a good deal further west then where the models are showing it forming right now.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- DESTRUCTION5
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NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.5N 25.3W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.08.2006 10.5N 25.3W WEAK
12UTC 05.08.2006 11.0N 23.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2006 10.8N 30.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2006 11.0N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2006 11.0N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
12 UTC UKMET is showing some development of the wave.
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.5N 25.3W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.08.2006 10.5N 25.3W WEAK
12UTC 05.08.2006 11.0N 23.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2006 10.8N 30.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.08.2006 11.0N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2006 11.0N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2006 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
12 UTC UKMET is showing some development of the wave.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- WindRunner
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- SouthFloridawx
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I'm still monitoring this situation as the globals models keep hinting at some development out in the Eastern Atlantic. I would not be suprised if we see a storm pop in the next few days as we are moving into the months when we need to watch development there.
There was an Azores high that moved more northward that is helping to keep more dust being blown off the African Coast. If you notice in the following graphic from the TPC site for the 805pm TWD.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
000
AXNT20 KNHC 050010
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. UW-CIMMS SAHARAN LAYER ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A FAIRLY DENSE REGION OF DUST AFFECTING THE WAVE. AN OLD QUIK
SCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 11N
THAT WILL BE MONITORED. THE GFS MODEL ALSO INITIALIZES A LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS VICINITY THAT MOVES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY 07/0000 UTC.
GFS 96 Hours
Canadian in 72 Hours
NOGAPS IN 120 HOURS
MM5FSU in 114 Hours
One Inhibiting factor that I noticed with this wave is the High Easterly Windshear to it's south that is making the clouds look all whispy.
Also to note that the Saharan Dust they mentioned before is not as prevalent as it was with some earlier waves that came off of africa, one that eventually spawned Chris.

There was an Azores high that moved more northward that is helping to keep more dust being blown off the African Coast. If you notice in the following graphic from the TPC site for the 805pm TWD.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif
000
AXNT20 KNHC 050010
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W S OF 19N MOVING
WEST 15 TO 20 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. UW-CIMMS SAHARAN LAYER ANALYSIS DEPICTS
A FAIRLY DENSE REGION OF DUST AFFECTING THE WAVE. AN OLD QUIK
SCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION AT 11N
THAT WILL BE MONITORED. THE GFS MODEL ALSO INITIALIZES A LOW
LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IN THIS VICINITY THAT MOVES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES BY 07/0000 UTC.

GFS 96 Hours

Canadian in 72 Hours

NOGAPS IN 120 HOURS

MM5FSU in 114 Hours

One Inhibiting factor that I noticed with this wave is the High Easterly Windshear to it's south that is making the clouds look all whispy.

Also to note that the Saharan Dust they mentioned before is not as prevalent as it was with some earlier waves that came off of africa, one that eventually spawned Chris.

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- SouthFloridawx
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Lot's of Lower Level Convergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html
Upper Level Divergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dvg.html
850mb Vorticity
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- cajungal
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The Cape Verde Season is not far off. By mid to the end of August, we may have some real monsters that won't get sheared apart like Chris. It gives us something new to talk about. I still think it is exciting at least tracking our first major hurricane of the season as long as it only bothers the fishies.
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These systems can have 40+ Advisories in are interesting. A good cape verde cane hopefully will form. Looking at the quickscat data no LLC has formed yet. Whats on this systems side it the SAL is moving north. So it should not effect it the onlly thing is eastly shear. So I say it has a chance.
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