Forecasting Chris - Most Difficult Storm in a Long Time

[Frank2]

The amazing thing is that the bottom of the TUTT "V" came roaring out of the north yesterday, and, hit Chris directly on target last night - not a bit to the west, or east, but right in the middle - and literally knocked the wind right out of it - very impressive, considering what a small target the system was at the time.

I happened to see that this morning on a local station, but, unfortunately the weathercaster may not have recognized it in the WV Loop she was showing, and, missed a good opportunity to make note of that incredible scene.

Makes you think...

Frank

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I seen the tutt catching Chris more then 6 to 12 hours before it happen. Heck I seen it a little longer. I can read a map.

Perhaps you want to shar with us the location of the TUTT because I never heard it in any of the discussions from the hurricane center or my local news. Perhaps you can go into a little more depth and show us what a TUTT looks like.

A Tutt is a upper level trough that forms normally at 25/55 which it avg...In its strongest at 250 to 300 millibars which makes it a upper level which means high in the Atmosphere. In this tutt upper level closed ULL's move southwestward through it forming shear. The tutt has strongest shear over the eastern part or southeastern Part...Which it shears tropical cyclones. But also it can have strong shear on its back side. Also at times in what almost happen with chris it can help tropical cyclones be forming outflow channel for the latent heat to be removed from the cyclone.

[Steve]

Here is some further reading:

http://www.windows.ucar.edu/cgi-bin/tou ... ayers.html

http://www.epa.gov/apti/course422/images/fig-1.gif



Steve

[JonathanBelles]

ok so in layman terms its a V shaped area of shear that comes from the poles toward the tropics that can destroy a system, right?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also take a look at the shear ten map which shows that the tutt moves northeast to southwest...Those decreasing area's of shear are likely ULL's or pulses moving down the tutt. The southwest side because its coming down southwestward is the strongest right now. You can see at 25/70 high increases in shear. With high shear around the front side at 20 north/60-62 west. That is the tutt.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Steve]

Hey Matt,

>>A Tutt is a upper level trough that forms normally at 25/55 which it avg...In its strongest at 250 to 300 millibars which makes it a upper level which means high in the Atmosphere. In this tutt upper level closed ULL's move southwestward through it forming shear. The tutt has strongest shear over the eastern part or southeastern Part...Which it shears tropical cyclones. But also it can have strong shear on its back side. Also at times in what almost happen with chris it can help tropical cyclones be forming outflow channel for the latent heat to be removed from the cyclone.

Perhaps you should have skipped that explanation.

Steve

[JonathanBelles]

ok got it thank you, but looking at satellite what is at 26n 72w?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Rainband]

Matt,

This TUTT interaction was not as easy as you make it out to be. That's a real cheap shot at NHC, IMO

With all due respect Derek, consider the source. The pros did the best they could. Sure it's easy to second guess after the fact. Matt I would like to see you do better than the NHC. Also, try having some respect while you are at it.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Rainband, I seen that this was likely to happen 12 hours before it did. If it did not get moving it was going to get sheared to death. In you could see that the shear was flating the top side.

[Derek Ortt]

A similar event happened with Daniel a couple of weeks ago. An UL formed that was not supposed to and sheared it quickly to death.

This is going to be a major problem over the ocean due to very few (i.e. no) observations

[Rainband]

Rainband, I seen that this was likely to happen 12 hours before it did. If it did not get moving it was going to get sheared to death. In you could see that the shear was flating the top side.

Well everybody argued with them when they said it was going to dissipate. Maybe because the ULL near florida weakened the ridge sooner than expected and allowed the tutt to move closer to Chris. Ever think about that?

[Noah]

As usual its all speculation on the storm until it is like 24-48 hours upon us before we know anything it seems. I come here to get ideas, but I still follow the experts. This is strictly my opinion for myself.

Although charley made a quicky turn!!


So many threads on chris, I have not been reading them, just going to NHC and coming here to check the new tracking page.

Last year and year before I was coo coo on here.

Its just getting all to confusing for me on here anymore and people are starting to argue, I feel tense reading here sometimes.

[Aquawind]

Interesting.. Someone jumping in to debate one aspect of one system to try and make their personal pat on the back versus the NHC. No real met would be so foolish without an alterior motive because they know their forecast can blow in 4 hours..

[Rainband]

Interesting.. Someone jumping in to debate one aspect of one system to try and make their personal pat on the back versus the NHC. No real met would be so foolish without an alterior motive because they know their forecast can blow in 4 hours..

Exactly

[Swimdude]

Whew, we are grouchy today!

[Rainband]

As usual its all speculation on the storm until it is like 24-48 hours upon us before we know anything it seems. I come here to get ideas, but I still follow the experts. This is strictly my opinion for myself.

Although charley made a quicky turn!!


So many threads on chris, I have not been reading them, just going to NHC and coming here to check the new tracking page.

Last year and year before I was coo coo on here.

Its just getting all to confusing for me on here anymore and people are starting to argue, I feel tense reading here sometimes

We are working on that Noah. Please don't let a few hot tempers ruin your experience here.

[shaggy]

i was saying lastnight how so many people were using references to previous hurricanes and all of them were monsters.Nobody used any references on storms that fell apart.Goes to show that not every storm is going to do what people think it is even the pros who did the best they could!

[Frank2]

Everyone here needs to get some rest, instead of punching each other in the stomach over a swirl of clouds...

[Rainband]

Everyone here needs to get some rest, instead of punching each other in the stomach over a swirl of clouds...

Best thing I have read in a few days!!