Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

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dixiebreeze
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#141 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:41 pm

Maybe she just took a break:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg
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#142 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:42 pm

Does it appear in that image that the center is no longer closed off or maybe it's the sun's angle playing a trick on the eyes?
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#143 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:44 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Does it appear in that image that the center is no longer closed off or maybe it's the sun's angle playing a trick on the eyes?


i do think the center is starting to open.
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#144 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:46 pm

The NHC was wise in not degrading Chris too soon maybe?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rb-l.jpg
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#145 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:46 pm

I think it is the sun angle.

BTW: There doesn't have to be a solid band of clouds around the center for it to be closed in a weak system like this. It hasn't been that way all day.
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#146 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:48 pm

Do I see a new and intense blow up of convection?
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#147 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:52 pm

Increased convection would seem to correlate with what recon is finding with increasing winds.
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#148 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:56 pm

B'hamBlazer wrote:Increased convection would seem to correlate with what recon is finding with increasing winds.
yes, it seems like as long as these "pops" of convection remain, Chris will remain a TS.
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#149 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:58 pm

B'hamBlazer wrote:Increased convection would seem to correlate with what recon is finding with increasing winds.


It would seem so. Maybe the shear is not as high as they thought. Plus, the "favorable" area isn't all that distant. Chris is a tough cookie.
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#150 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:58 pm

i think the fat lady is singing
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#151 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Aug 03, 2006 4:59 pm

fact789 wrote:i think the fat lady is singing



Nope. Not yet! Not as long as he keeps that lovely swirl and keeps flaring up.
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#152 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:01 pm

Does it look like he's getting closer and closer to the moist air or is that just the shear from the north that can rip him apart?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
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#153 Postby stormtruth » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:04 pm

Chris is starting to regain a tiny bit of his Chrisness.
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#154 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:05 pm

They just showed the IR on the news, and Chris' center is now much more visible than it has been all day due to new convection. The met also said that if Chris stayed over water that he would enter the GOM as at least a TD, and it could become a hurricane if it passed over the loop current.
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#155 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:05 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
B'hamBlazer wrote:Increased convection would seem to correlate with what recon is finding with increasing winds.


It would seem so. Maybe the shear is not as high as they thought. Plus, the "favorable" area isn't all that distant. Chris is a tough cookie.


Yeah, AFM said the favorable area is around 68-70 deg Longitude. He indicated that shear drops to 5 kts in a COL area there. If it doesn't refire in the next 24-36 hrs, it might never but the LLC is still strongly intact & has some TS firing on the SE side.
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#156 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:07 pm

URNT12 KNHC 032205
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/21:50:00Z
B. 20 deg 37 min N
068 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 49 deg 028 nm
F. 144 deg 043 kt
G. 048 deg 025 nm
H. EXTRAP 1011 mb
I. 22 C/ 335 m
J. 24 C/ 337 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF308 0603A CHRIS OB 10
MAX FL WIND 43 KT NE QUAD 21:42:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
;
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#157 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:17 pm

Well, the latest Recon stats would indicate that Chris might indeed have a future.
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#158 Postby hicksta » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:19 pm

Still holdin his own
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#159 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Aug 03, 2006 5:41 pm

TAFB 48 hr. forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
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#160 Postby ishop » Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:00 pm

Chris--- is still holding on

Who know his motto song might have be from "Destiny's Child"

" I am a survivor --keep on surviving ...."
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