Tropical Storm Chris

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MississippiHurricane
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#3661 Postby MississippiHurricane » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:04 pm

Its near 70W which if I remeber from earlier, is a "safe" zone for development?
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#3662 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:06 pm

In fairness, the NHC is saying nothing about strenghten in the short term but weakening. However, I think the convection only helps Chris maintain his structure until he gets in to a much favorable environment possibly in the GOM.
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#3663 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:06 pm

Misshurricane wrote:Its near 70W which if I remeber from earlier, is a "safe" zone for development?
Yes, it is getting close to safe zone, but since the safe zone is also moving it looks like it is still 1-2 degrees east of it.
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#3664 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:08 pm

I wonder if Chris could pull an Alberto. I remember Alberto was a naked swirl and being written off. The next morning he hit 70 mph.
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#3665 Postby EDR1222 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:14 pm

He is sure trying to hold together. It will be interesting to see if it can continue tohold together and get going again. Of course, any jog to the south will bring it really close to Haiti/Dominican Republic, which would most likely finish him off.

Let's watch and see what happens tonight.
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#3666 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:14 pm

There has been a steady increase in convection all day. Chris appears to be closing the gap with the ULL to the west and ever so slowly out running the ULL to the east.

Perhaps proximity to land issues near Cuba will keep his intensity down. This shear delay sure was good news for Florida with the heat content through the straits so high.
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#3667 Postby jhamps10 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:14 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2.jpg

IR2 sat. from 2315z. You can see the blow- up better in this shot.
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#3668 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:15 pm

I'd like to see some convection fire over the center before I can say for sure that Chris has a chance.
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#3669 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:16 pm

word.
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#3670 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:17 pm

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060804 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060804 0000 060804 1200 060805 0000 060805 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.7N 68.7W 19.9N 70.6W 19.3N 72.7W 18.9N 74.7W
BAMM 20.7N 68.7W 20.3N 70.7W 20.2N 72.8W 20.1N 75.1W
A98E 20.7N 68.7W 20.9N 70.6W 21.1N 72.6W 21.0N 74.7W
LBAR 20.7N 68.7W 20.7N 70.7W 20.9N 73.0W 21.3N 75.3W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS 41KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060806 0000 060807 0000 060808 0000 060809 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 76.7W 18.6N 81.4W 18.4N 86.6W 18.4N 91.7W
BAMM 20.2N 77.2W 20.6N 81.9W 20.8N 86.9W 21.0N 92.1W
A98E 20.7N 77.1W 22.1N 82.7W 22.9N 88.9W 22.9N 95.0W
LBAR 21.9N 77.8W 23.6N 83.0W 24.7N 88.3W 24.4N 93.8W
SHIP 44KTS 51KTS 59KTS 63KTS
DSHP 44KTS 48KTS 56KTS 60KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 68.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 66.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 64.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#3671 Postby B'hamBlazer » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:17 pm

I've learned there are 3 types of people that post here. 1) those dramatic types that want to make everything a Cat. 5 at the mere site of a few clouds. 2) those that want to downplay every tropical system and say it's just nothing, and 3) the moderates that go strictly on what they see. Unfortunately this 3rd group appears to be the smallest group represented here and usually consists of meterologists. Those 1st and 2nd groups jump on and off the band wagon with every bat of the eye.

Patience people. Just because a system might not look very promising means NOTHING. Statistically, you can say what you want. But there's a reason that very few things are ever 100% certain.
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#3672 Postby BowMeHunter1974 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:18 pm

word
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#3673 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:20 pm

I think I'm a little of all three types plus more. :cheesy:
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#3674 Postby Innotech » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:20 pm

hey now, Ive got crow riding on my prediction that it iwll recover and be a full on tropical storm by tomorrow morning.

It aint no cat 5, but its not dead either and Ive noticed the fighting characteristcs of this storm thel ikes of which has kept several other storms alive in the past in similar conditions. The Tropics are very unpredictable and that makes them exciting.
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#3675 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:21 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:I think I'm a little of all three types plus more. :cheesy:


You my friend, words can't describe. :D
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]

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#3676 Postby MississippiHurricane » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:21 pm

I think im in the 3rd group....but im NOT a meterologist
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#3677 Postby ericinmia » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:22 pm

B'hamBlazer wrote:I've learned there are 3 types of people that post here. 1) those dramatic types that want to make everything a Cat. 5 at the mere site of a few clouds. 2) those that want to downplay every tropical system and say it's just nothing, and 3) the moderates that go strictly on what they see. Unfortunately this 3rd group appears to be the smallest group represented here and usually consists of meterologists. Those 1st and 2nd groups jump on and off the band wagon with every bat of the eye.

Patience people. Just because a system might not look very promising means NOTHING. Statistically, you can say what you want. But there's a reason that very few things are ever 100% certain.


And a 4th group....


Those who analyze us!!!! :)

I agree, i can't stand some of the things i have to read. So i have gotten into speed reading. Over the years i have been here, i have learned WHICH names to read and which to skip over. lol, with the number of posts in some topics with one liners like... "(THIS IS GOING TO BLOW UP MY HOUSE... AAAAAAAAaaaahhhhhh") one has to filter out the garbage, its not worth fighting it.
-Eric

How about Chris! BTW has anyone noticed that the Sat. site for Noaa isn't working? Its going to slow that i'm timing out, and i don't have my bookmarks to others on this laptop? Time to go home! :)
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#3678 Postby mvtrucking » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:23 pm

I would like to see some convection firing on the north and west side of the center.(Only because, I can't believe this did not die completely today)

Also: What is happening to the west side of the storm? Shear crushing it?
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#3679 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:29 pm

I dont know which of those 4 types I am...however I will note that there is alot of new convection on the SE side...NOAA sat is down for me to for some reason...I'm really not speculating what will happen, has what happens, happens...I think I will leave the predicting up to the NHC and will just follow along on what they say...
Last edited by brunota2003 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3680 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:29 pm

.....and then there's a 5th group(currently only one member I know of so far). This group asks a lot of questions and needs them answered immediately. :wink:
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