Tropical Storm Chris
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- MississippiHurricane
- ChatStaff
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- Location: Hanover, Maryland
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- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
In fairness, the NHC is saying nothing about strenghten in the short term but weakening. However, I think the convection only helps Chris maintain his structure until he gets in to a much favorable environment possibly in the GOM.
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
There has been a steady increase in convection all day. Chris appears to be closing the gap with the ULL to the west and ever so slowly out running the ULL to the east.
Perhaps proximity to land issues near Cuba will keep his intensity down. This shear delay sure was good news for Florida with the heat content through the straits so high.
Perhaps proximity to land issues near Cuba will keep his intensity down. This shear delay sure was good news for Florida with the heat content through the straits so high.
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ir2.jpg
IR2 sat. from 2315z. You can see the blow- up better in this shot.
IR2 sat. from 2315z. You can see the blow- up better in this shot.
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- Category 5
- Posts: 1131
- Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS (AL032006) ON 20060804 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060804 0000 060804 1200 060805 0000 060805 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.7N 68.7W 19.9N 70.6W 19.3N 72.7W 18.9N 74.7W
BAMM 20.7N 68.7W 20.3N 70.7W 20.2N 72.8W 20.1N 75.1W
A98E 20.7N 68.7W 20.9N 70.6W 21.1N 72.6W 21.0N 74.7W
LBAR 20.7N 68.7W 20.7N 70.7W 20.9N 73.0W 21.3N 75.3W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS 41KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060806 0000 060807 0000 060808 0000 060809 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 76.7W 18.6N 81.4W 18.4N 86.6W 18.4N 91.7W
BAMM 20.2N 77.2W 20.6N 81.9W 20.8N 86.9W 21.0N 92.1W
A98E 20.7N 77.1W 22.1N 82.7W 22.9N 88.9W 22.9N 95.0W
LBAR 21.9N 77.8W 23.6N 83.0W 24.7N 88.3W 24.4N 93.8W
SHIP 44KTS 51KTS 59KTS 63KTS
DSHP 44KTS 48KTS 56KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 68.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 66.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 64.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060804 0000 060804 1200 060805 0000 060805 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.7N 68.7W 19.9N 70.6W 19.3N 72.7W 18.9N 74.7W
BAMM 20.7N 68.7W 20.3N 70.7W 20.2N 72.8W 20.1N 75.1W
A98E 20.7N 68.7W 20.9N 70.6W 21.1N 72.6W 21.0N 74.7W
LBAR 20.7N 68.7W 20.7N 70.7W 20.9N 73.0W 21.3N 75.3W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS 41KTS
DSHP 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS 41KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060806 0000 060807 0000 060808 0000 060809 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 76.7W 18.6N 81.4W 18.4N 86.6W 18.4N 91.7W
BAMM 20.2N 77.2W 20.6N 81.9W 20.8N 86.9W 21.0N 92.1W
A98E 20.7N 77.1W 22.1N 82.7W 22.9N 88.9W 22.9N 95.0W
LBAR 21.9N 77.8W 23.6N 83.0W 24.7N 88.3W 24.4N 93.8W
SHIP 44KTS 51KTS 59KTS 63KTS
DSHP 44KTS 48KTS 56KTS 60KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.7N LONCUR = 68.7W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 20.4N LONM12 = 66.8W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 19.9N LONM24 = 64.8W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 110NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 60
- Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2006 9:57 am
- Location: Birmingham, AL
I've learned there are 3 types of people that post here. 1) those dramatic types that want to make everything a Cat. 5 at the mere site of a few clouds. 2) those that want to downplay every tropical system and say it's just nothing, and 3) the moderates that go strictly on what they see. Unfortunately this 3rd group appears to be the smallest group represented here and usually consists of meterologists. Those 1st and 2nd groups jump on and off the band wagon with every bat of the eye.
Patience people. Just because a system might not look very promising means NOTHING. Statistically, you can say what you want. But there's a reason that very few things are ever 100% certain.
Patience people. Just because a system might not look very promising means NOTHING. Statistically, you can say what you want. But there's a reason that very few things are ever 100% certain.
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- Grease Monkey
- Category 2
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- Innotech
- Category 5
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hey now, Ive got crow riding on my prediction that it iwll recover and be a full on tropical storm by tomorrow morning.
It aint no cat 5, but its not dead either and Ive noticed the fighting characteristcs of this storm thel ikes of which has kept several other storms alive in the past in similar conditions. The Tropics are very unpredictable and that makes them exciting.
It aint no cat 5, but its not dead either and Ive noticed the fighting characteristcs of this storm thel ikes of which has kept several other storms alive in the past in similar conditions. The Tropics are very unpredictable and that makes them exciting.
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- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
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- MississippiHurricane
- ChatStaff
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B'hamBlazer wrote:I've learned there are 3 types of people that post here. 1) those dramatic types that want to make everything a Cat. 5 at the mere site of a few clouds. 2) those that want to downplay every tropical system and say it's just nothing, and 3) the moderates that go strictly on what they see. Unfortunately this 3rd group appears to be the smallest group represented here and usually consists of meterologists. Those 1st and 2nd groups jump on and off the band wagon with every bat of the eye.
Patience people. Just because a system might not look very promising means NOTHING. Statistically, you can say what you want. But there's a reason that very few things are ever 100% certain.
And a 4th group....
Those who analyze us!!!!

I agree, i can't stand some of the things i have to read. So i have gotten into speed reading. Over the years i have been here, i have learned WHICH names to read and which to skip over. lol, with the number of posts in some topics with one liners like... "(THIS IS GOING TO BLOW UP MY HOUSE... AAAAAAAAaaaahhhhhh") one has to filter out the garbage, its not worth fighting it.
-Eric
How about Chris! BTW has anyone noticed that the Sat. site for Noaa isn't working? Its going to slow that i'm timing out, and i don't have my bookmarks to others on this laptop? Time to go home!

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- mvtrucking
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- brunota2003
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I dont know which of those 4 types I am...however I will note that there is alot of new convection on the SE side...NOAA sat is down for me to for some reason...I'm really not speculating what will happen, has what happens, happens...I think I will leave the predicting up to the NHC and will just follow along on what they say...
Last edited by brunota2003 on Thu Aug 03, 2006 7:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Grease Monkey
- Category 2
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