Tropical Storm Chris
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If I'm reading the loops correctly Chris looks to be approaching a shear convergence zone between two different directions of shear.
I'd still be watching for a reconvective burst as long as it still has spin.
But it also looks to be headed for a crash and burn onto Cuba.
Chris could be the air-clearer for the next storm.
I'd still be watching for a reconvective burst as long as it still has spin.
But it also looks to be headed for a crash and burn onto Cuba.
Chris could be the air-clearer for the next storm.
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
*edited by staff to make the image a link
*please do not post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each post
*edited by staff to make the image a link
*please do not post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each post
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Looking at the above photo (and the visibile loop) is does seem that the circulation is slowly (or not so slowly) winding down - if it passed over us right now (down here in South Florida), we'd hardly notice it...
If that happens you'll see the spiral contort and deconform due to it being weaker than the forces around it.
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- AJC3
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Sanibel wrote:If I'm reading the loops correctly Chris looks to be approaching a shear convergence zone between two different directions of shear.
I'd still be watching for a reconvective burst as long as it still has spin.
But it also looks to be headed for a crash and burn onto Cuba.
Chris could be the air-clearer for the next storm.
This is what is referred to as a deformation zone, the center of which is called a 'col' point. The col point, or "col" for short, is an area of lower shear relative to what's going on all around it. Just how large this area of a low-shear becomes can vary greatly - in this case, it looks like it's pretty small to begin with...and getting smaller.
Here's a rough idealized schematic. Since I couldn't find one online after a 60-second search, you'll have to settle for my "stellar" artistic stylings.
In reality, the upper lows aren't usually symmetric.
http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071/Col.jpg
Chris has been consistently lagging behind this area, and as a result, has been subjected to north or NW shear
Last edited by AJC3 on Fri Aug 04, 2006 9:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Portastorm
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- Extremeweatherguy
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I agree. The one thing that concerns me though is that every model correctly predicted Chris' weakening, so I wonder if they will be right again?Portastorm wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:It's amazing that nearly every model re-strengthens Chris.
What could they possibly be seeing? Via satellite, this system looks like it needs last rites.
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- Innotech
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dont be so quick to write it off even yet. Its about to outrun the strongest shear and still firing convection off to the SE. Its still spinning and astill fighting. It needs to go just a bit further to clear Hispaniola altogether and is still heading NW. In other words do NOT consider this dead.
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- HouTXmetro
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I think we are throwing in the towel to quick. granted he looks pathetic but here are some things to note.
1. Convection refireing on Eastern sides
2. Chris is trakcking slightly north of the forecast points increasing the likely hood of a straights passage and less weakening.
3. Most models intensifies Chris
4. Conditions are still forecasted to improve
1. Convection refireing on Eastern sides
2. Chris is trakcking slightly north of the forecast points increasing the likely hood of a straights passage and less weakening.
3. Most models intensifies Chris
4. Conditions are still forecasted to improve
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
- Innotech
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HouTXmetro wrote:I think we are throwing in the towel to quick. granted he looks pathetic but here are some things to note.
1. Convection refireing on Eastern sides
2. Chris is trakcking slightly north of the forecast points increasing the likely hood of a straights passage and less weakening.
3. Most models intensifies Chris
4. Conditions are still forecasted to improve
precisely.
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- cajungal
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I would not write off Chris yet. He is a fighter. I remember when what became Katrina was totally ripped apart and everyone wrote her off. And she came back with a HUGE bang. Remember Lili? The same thing happened. She fell apart and everyone wrote her off. Once she got in the gulf she exploded in a powerful cat 4 storm.
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- HouTXmetro
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- HouTXmetro
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Chris is tracking well N of the points, what's happening?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html
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[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
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