Update: Fat lady has yet to sing--Chris lives!

[HouTXmetro]

i think the fat ladys humming and ready to explode (in either way)

Rolling on the floor

[BayouVenteux]

Ooooo, it's so close now with poor Chris...you just know it's on the tip of the good doctor's tongue. C'mon...say it!

[curtadams]

If the shear is 25 knots, then it's 25 knots. The shear is the magnitude of a vector difference that is caluclated relative to a base level, and typically these charts uses H85 wind. If storm motion is roughly the same as the H85 wind vector (sans the storm circ itself), then the shear charts are fairly accurate. If the shear was calculated relative to ground level, then what you would have would be...ahem...250MB windspeed.

All true. But what is the shear over Chris? CIMMS says it's in the teens, and my eyes agree. The convection SE of the LLC looks like it's under pretty moderate shear.

[Air Force Met]

Whoa! Hang on a sec, here. This isn't correct!

If the shear is 25 knots, then it's 25 knots. The shear is the magnitude of a vector difference that is caluclated relative to a base level, and typically these charts uses H85 wind. If storm is moving roughly with the H85 wind, then the shear charts are fairly accurate. If the shear was calculated relative to ground level, then what you would have would be...ahem...250MB windspeed.

Now if someone was to look at an H25 isotach chart and say, "hey there's 35 knots of NE wind, that will start to rip away the convection, then you could pose your argument about storm motion.

Hold on...I wasn't speaking of shear in those terms...I was speaking in terms of upper level winds. In other words...if the 300mb winds are 25 knots...etc. I am calling 25 knots of wind over the top of a tropical depression shear. It's less shearing if it is blowing in the same direction as the storm is moving..than if it is moving in the opposite direction. Hence the 250-850 shear maps.

I think the individual knew what I was saying....or I hope. Didn't mean to confuse. It's hard to break habits. When we are in the office...when we talk about shear...there...of course...certain things that are understood....and what you pointed out is one of them.

[stormie_skies]

Yep, she's definitely looking better with all this running on and off stage.

LMAO!!

Now all we need is an infomercial!

The S2K weight loss program..... how much should we charge?


(and by the time we see the end of Chris, I bet we can put this lady in a bikini .... the cash will be rolling in!)

[AJC3]

Whoa! Hang on a sec, here. This isn't correct!

If the shear is 25 knots, then it's 25 knots. The shear is the magnitude of a vector difference that is caluclated relative to a base level, and typically these charts uses H85 wind. If storm is moving roughly with the H85 wind, then the shear charts are fairly accurate. If the shear was calculated relative to ground level, then what you would have would be...ahem...250MB windspeed.

Now if someone was to look at an H25 isotach chart and say, "hey there's 35 knots of NE wind, that will start to rip away the convection, then you could pose your argument about storm motion.

Hold on...I wasn't speaking of shear in those terms...I was speaking in terms of upper level winds. In other words...if the 300mb winds are 25 knots...etc. I am calling 25 knots of wind over the top of a tropical depression shear. It's less shearing if it is blowing in the same direction as the storm is moving..than if it is moving in the opposite direction. Hence the 250-850 shear maps.

I think the individual knew what I was saying....or I hope. Didn't mean to confuse. It's hard to break habits. When we are in the office...when we talk about shear...there...of course...certain things that are understood....and what you pointed out is one of them.

Ah. Gotcha. Just wanted people to remember that those shear values are actually computed, subtracting out the low level wind. I checked the CIMSS site again, and it's H70-H925 used as a basline. Sometimes upper level winds and upper level wind shear are used interchangably on here.

[AJC3]

If the shear is 25 knots, then it's 25 knots. The shear is the magnitude of a vector difference that is caluclated relative to a base level, and typically these charts uses H85 wind. If storm motion is roughly the same as the H85 wind vector (sans the storm circ itself), then the shear charts are fairly accurate. If the shear was calculated relative to ground level, then what you would have would be...ahem...250MB windspeed.

All true. But what is the shear over Chris? CIMMS says it's in the teens, and my eyes agree. The convection SE of the LLC looks like it's under pretty moderate shear.

Oh, I agree with you there. I think we were just hypothesizing what if the higher shear values to the NE came down over the top of Chris.

[Air Force Met]

Ah. Gotcha. Just wanted people to remember that those shear values are actually computed, subtracting out the low level wind. I checked the CIMSS site again, and it's H70-H925 used as a basline. Sometimes upper level winds and upper level wind shear are used interchangably on here.

Yeah...but I don't look at those charts all the time...especially in real time. I try to look at the raw values when I am just examining a satellite pic.

[x-y-no]

Can't speak for Josephine96, but I understood what was meant.

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like the Fat Lady may have to be put on Life Support if Chris keeps this up.

[jlauderdal]

Ah. Gotcha. Just wanted people to remember that those shear values are actually computed, subtracting out the low level wind. I checked the CIMSS site again, and it's H70-H925 used as a basline. Sometimes upper level winds and upper level wind shear are used interchangably on here.

Yeah...but I don't look at those charts all the time...especially in real time. I try to look at the raw values when I am just examining a satellite pic.

At last we get the 10 round heavyeweight bout between AFM from Texas and AJC3 from Florida. The texas-florida fight to the death match that has been brewing between the texas and florida lightweights for the last couple of hurricane seasons. We have seen people insulted, banned and irritated from both states. This will be the cage match to decide which state is king of the shear map. Go to it and leave it all in the ring.

[AnnularCane]

The fat lady could use the exercise anyway. She should be thanking Chris.

[dixiebreeze]

The fat lady could use the exercise anyway. She should be thanking Chris.

Maria Callas she's not.

[Brent]

I hope the fat lady knows how to perform CPR...

[westmoon]

Fat lady down to 98 pounds!!!!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

She'll be down to skin and bones by Saturday.

[Air Force Met]

I hope the fat lady knows how to perform CPR...

Yeah...with the outflow boundry moving through the LLC...gonna need to:

CLEAR

As I said this morning, if something of Chris holds together...and most likley it will be a wave...for another 2 days...it has a real shot of redeveloping....but it has to make it that long either as a TD or a wave.

[HouTXmetro]

oK, WE CAN ALL GO HOME NOW.

[tgenius]

at 2:30pm, we note for the records that we have a flatlined tropical system #3, better known as Chris. May he rest in peace.

[Grease Monkey]

Here's a little goodbye song for Chris:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/music/clipserv ... 33-8047826