Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Windspeed]

Decided to draw on some recent observations from the latest visible. There may be a tighter circulation developing on the western side of the broader surface low. It may just be mid-level rotation to the clouds though.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v294/ ... d/90L2.jpg


*edited by staff to make the image a link

*please don't post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each line on the whole page...thanks

[ROCK]

thanx for posting the latest model plots. I think the GFDL(which I normally like) is on crack this time. On the other hand, if you look at the other models, this storm may be way too far south to affect the USA in the long-term.

Remember Chris was progged to approach at the same lat....it organized and pulled up....way to early to speculate the long term scenario.

The GFDL is either, underestimating the ridge or sees a weakness, coupled with 91L organizing enough to start being pulled northward. I would venture to say a weaker 91 will track more westward. Just by looking at recent visibles, it still is lacking the organization skills to make the GFDL verify ATTM.

[ConvergenceZone]

Windspeed, that's interesting. I guess we'll just have to wait and see. I'm just not a patient person...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree with the drawing above...The LLC looks to becoming better defined over the last hour. No longer doe's it look broad...In also the convection is firing on the western side looks to be drawing closer. The quickscats earlier shown a closed but broad LLC. Now its most likely more defined.

[ConvergenceZone]

exactly ROCK. If we want it to curve out to sea, we better hope it gets its act together in the next couple of days, otherwise, it just isn't going to recurve.

[jhamps10]

if we don't see it develop by say noon tuesday, Then the US coast really may want to watch this, cause it may make a track towards the GOM, it may not but who really knows right now, it's too far out to even think about it going through the caribbean and towards the GOM. But something to think about later on down the road.

[Jim Cantore]

GFDL picks up on this

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... phase1.png

So does the GFS

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png


*edited by staff to make the images links

*please don't post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each line on the whole page...thanks

[Bailey1777]

Explain to me what that means please.

[Jim Cantore]

It basicly means that the model thinks it's going to become a symmetric warm core system, which is basically what a tropical cyclone is, a warm core system.

[Bailey1777]

Ok I get it now thanks.

[Jim Cantore]

no problem

[28_Storms]

Development appears likely with 91L.

[mike815]

yes VERY LIKELY

[Jim Cantore]

Debby is in the womb!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where do the pros think this will eventually end up? The GOM or the East Coast?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think this is very close to depression...You got a tighter LLC with convection starting to fire. This thing kills Chris the last few days of its life.

[mike815]

yes i agree things seem to have changed this may develope more quick then i was thinking

[28_Storms]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Don't think so the flow is strongly to the west from 850 millibars to 200 mililbars. A break is around 35 north/40 west but it should not effect this system at all as long as it stays south of 15. So I think its going ot go west or west-northwest at about 10 to 15 knots.

[Jim Cantore]

Where do the pros think this will eventually end up? The GOM or the East Coast?

Thats at least 9-13 days off