Invest 91L,E of Windwards,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread
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Decided to draw on some recent observations from the latest visible. There may be a tighter circulation developing on the western side of the broader surface low. It may just be mid-level rotation to the clouds though.
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v294/ ... d/90L2.jpg
*edited by staff to make the image a link
*please don't post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each line on the whole page...thanks
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v294/ ... d/90L2.jpg
*edited by staff to make the image a link
*please don't post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each line on the whole page...thanks
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ConvergenceZone wrote:thanx for posting the latest model plots. I think the GFDL(which I normally like) is on crack this time. On the other hand, if you look at the other models, this storm may be way too far south to affect the USA in the long-term.
Remember Chris was progged to approach at the same lat....it organized and pulled up....way to early to speculate the long term scenario.
The GFDL is either, underestimating the ridge or sees a weakness, coupled with 91L organizing enough to start being pulled northward. I would venture to say a weaker 91 will track more westward. Just by looking at recent visibles, it still is lacking the organization skills to make the GFDL verify ATTM.
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- ConvergenceZone
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I agree with the drawing above...The LLC looks to becoming better defined over the last hour. No longer doe's it look broad...In also the convection is firing on the western side looks to be drawing closer. The quickscats earlier shown a closed but broad LLC. Now its most likely more defined.
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- ConvergenceZone
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if we don't see it develop by say noon tuesday, Then the US coast really may want to watch this, cause it may make a track towards the GOM, it may not but who really knows right now, it's too far out to even think about it going through the caribbean and towards the GOM. But something to think about later on down the road.
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GFDL picks up on this
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... phase1.png
So does the GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png
*edited by staff to make the images links
*please don't post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each line on the whole page...thanks
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... phase1.png
So does the GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... phase1.png
*edited by staff to make the images links
*please don't post such large images - it makes everyone have to scroll to read each line on the whole page...thanks
Last edited by Jim Cantore on Sun Aug 06, 2006 3:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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