SST'S and Anomalies in Atlantic Thread #4
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P.K.
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CURRENT STATUS as at 26th July 2006
Next update expected by 9th August 2006 (two weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |
Summary: A persistence of neutral ENSO conditions
The overall ENSO status remains neutral. Generally weak trends have been observed in the main Pacific climate indicators during the past few weeks, and the potential for an El Niño event to develop this year is still relatively low.
The main concern remains the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is still hovering around the −10 mark, indicating a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. In addition, the Trade Winds have been weaker than average across much of the Pacific during July, so this situation will be monitored closely for any sustained trends. However, with the exception of the far eastern Pacific, ocean temperatures are only marginally above average, both on and below the surface. Therefore, there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Niño event to develop.
Most of the ENSO prediction models surveyed at the end of July showed a continuation of neutral conditions, although on the warm side of normal. A sustained warming beginning at this time of year would be unusual, given that ENSO events typically begin to evolve between March and June.
Next update expected by 9th August 2006 (two weeks after this update).
| Summary | In Brief | Details |
Summary: A persistence of neutral ENSO conditions
The overall ENSO status remains neutral. Generally weak trends have been observed in the main Pacific climate indicators during the past few weeks, and the potential for an El Niño event to develop this year is still relatively low.
The main concern remains the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is still hovering around the −10 mark, indicating a general weakness in the Pacific Walker Circulation. In addition, the Trade Winds have been weaker than average across much of the Pacific during July, so this situation will be monitored closely for any sustained trends. However, with the exception of the far eastern Pacific, ocean temperatures are only marginally above average, both on and below the surface. Therefore, there is only a slight risk that the Pacific will warm to levels high enough for an El Niño event to develop.
Most of the ENSO prediction models surveyed at the end of July showed a continuation of neutral conditions, although on the warm side of normal. A sustained warming beginning at this time of year would be unusual, given that ENSO events typically begin to evolve between March and June.
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Just wanted to bring this back up being that 99L might be making a GOM visit.
The "Big Three" GOM buoys are 42001, 42002, and 42003.
For July 31, each one of them is at or above the same time for 2005 for overnight SSTs. Overnight is a better measurement than during the day (can spike on any given day).
The "Big Three" GOM buoys are 42001, 42002, and 42003.
For July 31, each one of them is at or above the same time for 2005 for overnight SSTs. Overnight is a better measurement than during the day (can spike on any given day).
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cycloneye
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This is the latest weekly update of the anomalys in the Atlantic.Looks like the MDR area has warmed slightly more than last weeks update.And the North Atlantic is well above normal in the anomalys.
Weekly Atlantic Anomalys Update
Weekly Atlantic Anomalys Update
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Grease Monkey
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SouthFloridawx
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JonathanBelles
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westmoon
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Don't know if there is any connection or not but living and boating on the west coast of florida this year we have noticed that our normal summer tides are very low, and last winters tides were lower than normal. It has been the topic of conversation most weekends at the marina that since Katrina went through the normal tides Levels have not seamed to come back. Could this change in the tides have anything to due with the gulf being warmer than usual?
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SouthFloridawx
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http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2006.gif
Seems to be some warming in the Eastern Atlantic.
Seems to be some warming in the Eastern Atlantic.
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SouthFloridawx wrote:http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.8.22.2006.gif
Seems to be some warming in the Eastern Atlantic.
Definitely warm. My big question is... how will the El Ninoish forcing that has been taking place since June affect this year? We have seen two low-latitude systems in the tropical Atlantic... though they haven't prospered. What will September bring.. hmmm
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