Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)
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- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Brent wrote:11:30am TWO!!!
A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
WOW.
Thanx for posting the TWO Brent. I have alot of friends scattered throughout the islands. I'll make sure and advise them all to keep an eye on this, although 3 of them are hurricane nuts like I am, so I'm sure they area already on it...
Thanx
Dusty
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- bvigal
- S2K Supporter
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What's with the visible loops? Only go through 13th 0345UTC???
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html
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- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
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- Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
- Location: Northern California
Frank2 wrote:Some serious southerly shear is to the west of this disturbance, over the central Caribbean Sea:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
that may move away in time or lessen....
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Sun Aug 13, 2006 12:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Aquawind
- Category 5
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Things are clearly getting more favorable moisture wise in the west..
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88026
Upper - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... upper.html
Mid - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wvmid.html
Try this bvigal.. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88026
Upper - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... upper.html
Mid - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wvmid.html
Try this bvigal.. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
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Looks better on WV loop than previous invests.
Questions for skilled observers: Looks like outlow to NW and SE, more classic TD shape, but I don't see inflow. A low to the NE of the convection? Convection seems to be growing along a slightly NE axis from 13-23 N.
Like to see a chart. At this point, what level shear do you look at?
Questions for skilled observers: Looks like outlow to NW and SE, more classic TD shape, but I don't see inflow. A low to the NE of the convection? Convection seems to be growing along a slightly NE axis from 13-23 N.
Like to see a chart. At this point, what level shear do you look at?
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- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
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- StrongWind
- Tropical Storm
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- AtlanticWind
- S2K Supporter
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- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
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- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
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- Location: Sarasota FL
looking at the vis loop, i would be very surprised if the plane found an LLC. Very few low level cloud elements to look at, and the overall motion north and south of the "thuderstorm" is easterly.
No to say it wont flare up, but I dont see the need for recon until at least tomorrow, especially since it is already moving through the islands where they have plenty of ground observations.
No to say it wont flare up, but I dont see the need for recon until at least tomorrow, especially since it is already moving through the islands where they have plenty of ground observations.
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- Aquawind
- Category 5
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- Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
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Midlevel Shear - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html
Shear Tendancy - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-sht.html
Yes most of the tops have warmed but there is still a bit of deep convection firing.. on the down trend of late though..
Shear Tendancy - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-sht.html
Yes most of the tops have warmed but there is still a bit of deep convection firing.. on the down trend of late though..
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- SouthFloridawx
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- S2K Supporter
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- bvigal
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I'm still getting August 12 through 0245UTC on the visible floater loop!!
This sure is a weak low, based upon surface obs. Lowest pressure in Barbados, yesterday at 5pm. No low at 53W, at 56W, lowest at 4pm yesterday, at 57.9W, lowest at 4am this morning.
24hr graphs of buoys:
46.0W 14.5N 41041
53.0W 14.5N 41040
56.2W 14.6N 41101
57.9W 15.9N 41100
Links for airport data:
Trinidad
Grenada
Barbados
St. Vincent
St. Lucia south
St. Lucia north
This sure is a weak low, based upon surface obs. Lowest pressure in Barbados, yesterday at 5pm. No low at 53W, at 56W, lowest at 4pm yesterday, at 57.9W, lowest at 4am this morning.
24hr graphs of buoys:
46.0W 14.5N 41041
53.0W 14.5N 41040
56.2W 14.6N 41101
57.9W 15.9N 41100
Links for airport data:
Trinidad
Grenada
Barbados
St. Vincent
St. Lucia south
St. Lucia north
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New schedule just came out. There's no change todays flight but tomorrow has changed:
Code: Select all
020
NOUS42 KNHC 131730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1330 AM EDT SUN 13 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-075 AMD
AMENDED AS FOLLOWS
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NO CHANGE)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 13/1800Z RESOURCES PERMITTING
B. AF304 01EEA INVEST
C. 13/1615Z
D. 13.5N 60.5W
E. 13/1700Z TO 13/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
FLIGHT TWO (CHANGED) FLIGHT THREE (CHANGED)
A. 14/1800Z A. 15/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
C. 14/1615Z C. 15/0415Z
D. 14.5N 65.5W D. 15.0N 68.5W
E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2200Z E. 15/0500Z TO 15/1000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPES AND IS A THREAT.
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