Tropical Wave in Central Caribbean (Ex 92L)

[Aquawind]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

Doesn't look as dry as has been the case thus far.. Not exactly juicey but a tad wetter. Deep convection continues to refire.

[ConvergenceZone]

11:30am TWO!!!

A TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
GENERATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY
AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

WOW.

Thanx for posting the TWO Brent. I have alot of friends scattered throughout the islands. I'll make sure and advise them all to keep an eye on this, although 3 of them are hurricane nuts like I am, so I'm sure they area already on it...
Thanx
Dusty

[Sanibel]

That WV looks primed to me. Especially because of the time of season and the fact that no cyclone has tapped it yet.

What is stopping development is the systems entering it are weak.

[bvigal]

What's with the visible loops? Only go through 13th 0345UTC???
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Some serious southerly shear is to the west of this disturbance, over the central Caribbean Sea:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

that may move away in time or lessen....

[Aquawind]

Things are clearly getting more favorable moisture wise in the west..

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88026


Upper - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... upper.html

Mid - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wvmid.html

Try this bvigal.. http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

[Recurve]

Looks better on WV loop than previous invests.
Questions for skilled observers: Looks like outlow to NW and SE, more classic TD shape, but I don't see inflow. A low to the NE of the convection? Convection seems to be growing along a slightly NE axis from 13-23 N.

Like to see a chart. At this point, what level shear do you look at?

[ConvergenceZone]

Actually, the more I look at the maps, perhaps the METS are right about the shear. Geez, August 13th and still not favorable!!! What gives?


Allghough most said to look out after August 15th, so I guess we still have 2 days for conditions to start changing...

[StrongWind]

Looks like it's 'de-flaring' - at least for the moment.

Will the jet of moisture coming down towards it off the front to it's north be like a shot of adrenaline?

[AtlanticWind]

Looks Like the low level swirl is to the east displaced from the convection as per usual this year

[cheezyWXguy]

it spat out an outflow boundary about half an hour ago and is now reflaring convection.

[Emmett_Brown]

looking at the vis loop, i would be very surprised if the plane found an LLC. Very few low level cloud elements to look at, and the overall motion north and south of the "thuderstorm" is easterly.

No to say it wont flare up, but I dont see the need for recon until at least tomorrow, especially since it is already moving through the islands where they have plenty of ground observations.

[Aquawind]

Midlevel Shear - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

Shear Tendancy - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... s-sht.html

Yes most of the tops have warmed but there is still a bit of deep convection firing.. on the down trend of late though..

[Sanibel]

I'm glad somebody else saw those classic "S"-shaped rotors sticking out to the north and south.


We'll see if this poofs like the other two.

[Sanibel]

Hey folks. Take a look at the visible floater zoom on this system. You can see a clearly developed surface spiral east of Barbados - meaning the convection you are seeing is sheared west of the actual surface feature.

[SouthFloridawx]

Can someone fill me in on what is going on here?

[Dean4Storms]

I agree on the need to cancel Recon for today, it is already blowing through the islands and no west wind obs, convection has decreased a tad and I think it still needs another 12 hours at least of constant deep convection near the low before we get any closed LLC at the surface.

[bvigal]

I'm still getting August 12 through 0245UTC on the visible floater loop!!

This sure is a weak low, based upon surface obs. Lowest pressure in Barbados, yesterday at 5pm. No low at 53W, at 56W, lowest at 4pm yesterday, at 57.9W, lowest at 4am this morning.

24hr graphs of buoys:
46.0W 14.5N 41041
53.0W 14.5N 41040
56.2W 14.6N 41101
57.9W 15.9N 41100

Links for airport data:
Trinidad
Grenada
Barbados
St. Vincent
St. Lucia south
St. Lucia north

[willjnewton]

but do you all think that this disturbance will develop today???and where is it now???and where will it head???

[Thunder44]

New schedule just came out. There's no change todays flight but tomorrow has changed:

Code: Select all

020
NOUS42 KNHC 131730
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1330 AM EDT SUN 13 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z AUG 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-075 AMD

                     AMENDED AS FOLLOWS
I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA (NO CHANGE)
       FLIGHT ONE
       A. 13/1800Z RESOURCES PERMITTING
       B. AF304 01EEA INVEST
       C. 13/1615Z
       D. 13.5N 60.5W
       E. 13/1700Z TO 13/2300Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT

       FLIGHT TWO (CHANGED)        FLIGHT THREE (CHANGED)
       A. 14/1800Z                 A. 15/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE      B. AFXXX 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 14/1615Z                 C. 15/0415Z
       D. 14.5N 65.5W              D. 15.0N 68.5W
       E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2200Z     E. 15/0500Z TO 15/1000Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT          F. SFC TO 10,000FT


    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:  CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
       SYSTEM DEVELOPES AND IS A THREAT.