GOM System (Ex 95L)

[Portastorm]

While it looks impressive on satellite, the afternoon forecast discussions out of Texas NWSFOs don't seem too concerned. Hmmm ....

[wxman57]

I'm quite concerned about this cluster of storms. Over the past couple of hours there has been a darmatic increase in convection. Satellite indicates very good outflow. No sign of an LLC or MLC, but IF (big IF) these storms persist overnight then I think we may see a TD form tomorrow as it moves SW-WSW at 10-12 mph. I estimate it may move inland into northern Mexico or south Texas late Thursday night or Friday morning (assuming it's still around by then). So not much time over water.

An interesting note, this disturbance is near 27N/89W. Alicia formed near 27N/90W on August 15th, 1983. Steering currents aren't the same as with Alicia, though, and this system will have about 24 hours less time to strengthen, assuming it DOES become a TD tomorrow.

Certainly has my full attentiion as it's right over our clients. Had a report of a 58kt wind gust in the squalls an hour or two ago.

[skysummit]

wxmann....what about the buoy reports in the area? They're showing signs of a broad surface circulation.

[Derek Ortt]

if its there once I leave the doctor's office tomorrow, I'll then be a bit more concerned

but a good rule of thunm for these systems is, there must be 24 hours of persistence, and even then, things can take a while. Charley in 1998 took forever and a week to form

[Extremeweatherguy]

JBs afternoon post said this is coming to TX. I just hope it comes close enough to bring me some rain! I wouldn't even mind a nice weak TS along the central or upper TX coast with some breezy winds (to make it feel cooler).

[wxmann_91]

wxmann....what about the buoy reports in the area? They're showing signs of a broad surface circulation.

You talking to me or wxman57?

I don't have the bouy reports.

[drezee]

from NHC:

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... BNT20.KNHC

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[skysummit]

wxmann....what about the buoy reports in the area? They're showing signs of a broad surface circulation.

You talking to me or wxman57?

I don't have the bouy reports.

Sorry....57. He mentioned no circulation yet, however, it looks like there may be one according to buoy reports:

[Rainband]

Hope you guys get some rain. We finally did yesterday. There is no mention of this on any of the news stations. Hope it doesn't wind up biting someone in the butt.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I think this forming area might have been what the models were keying on earlier in week, not 93L.

[Stormcenter]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 15 2006

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Now the part about "little movement" is VERY interesting considering how warm the GOM is.

[miamicanes177]

would upwelling be a problem if it just sits in the same spot?

[wxman57]

wxmann....what about the buoy reports in the area? They're showing signs of a broad surface circulation.

As you can see from the post above this one, buoys have westerly winds to the NORTH of the storms. Unless it's rotating anticyclonically, then there's no LLC yet. As Derek and I said, the key is PERSISTENCE. The storms must persist at least through tonight.

[Stormcenter]

If there is a "center" forming it looks it would be somewhere south of SSE of Mobile, AL.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[tailgater]

would upwelling be a problem if it just sits in the same spot?

Not unless it became a Strong T.S. or Cane

[StormWarning1]

would upwelling be a problem if it just sits in the same spot?

Not for a developing system it wouldn't be.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

would upwelling be a problem if it just sits in the same spot?

good question! starting to look good on the satellite pix, like one said in the eariler post we'll see if this keeps thru the night.........

[drezee]

it is sitting on the NE side of the Loop current...

[Brent]

Looks very ominous.

[Thunder44]

I see cloud tops starting to warm from the earlier thunderstorms. But there are new ones forming on the north side.