GOM System (Ex 95L)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:
Contact skysummit

#201 Postby skysummit » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:06 pm

From the 10:30 TWO:

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38115
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#202 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:07 pm

:blowup:

I'd watch that new MCS though...
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#203 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:09 pm

Best disco out of Houston in quite awhile.....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#204 Postby Thunder44 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:11 pm

Well they still want to keep the system off the SE coast an invest and it has little convection with it. So why not call this one an invest too?
0 likes   
Top
roadie
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 5
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 9:25 am
Location: Tyler, Texas
Contact:
Contact roadie

#205 Postby roadie » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:11 pm

this may be a bit over cautious...

nonetheless. it IS strictly an INVESTigation of possible concern, a job the Navy has to do to perform its world-wide operations...if it deflates to nothing, it's given us something to talk about, and from reading this forum, we need something to talk about...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#206 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:13 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/06081512/52.html

NOGAPS :uarrow: :uarrow:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 518/3.html

NAM :uarrow: :uarrow:
Doesn't look like these models are showing any kind of SW track. Makes you wonder..

All I know is I hope they are right. I am really wanting to get some rain soon! I am sick of this dry, hot weather! :roll:

BTW, here is the official 72 hr. forecast:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Let's just hope their usual 3-4 day track error works out and this is a tad further north (up by Matagorda) with some nice cloudy/rainy weather on the north side.
Last edited by Extremeweatherguy on Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:18 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
crab_storm

#207 Postby crab_storm » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:14 pm

Here is an interesting 60 hour forcast

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WW3 ... ht.060.gif

forcasting possible TD / TS in MS / AL
0 likes   
Top
Matt-hurricanewatcher

#208 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:20 pm

Thats a wave forecast...Theres very likely will not be a tropical cyclone out of this thing.
0 likes   
Top
crab_storm

#209 Postby crab_storm » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:24 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Thats a wave forecast...Theres very likely will not be a tropical cyclone out of this thing.


well... what do you think generates waves in the GOM this time of year.
This is a Navy forcast...
0 likes   
Top
rockyman
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1967
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 12:24 pm
Location: Dauphin Island, AL

#210 Postby rockyman » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:40 pm

Winds here on Dauphin Island are HOWLING! The MCS is getting ready to roll through...will be our first rain (hopefully) in a long time...Wahoo! :cheesy:
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34091
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#211 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:41 pm

I see circulation though...
0 likes   
Top
Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:
Contact Stratosphere747

#212 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:44 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I see circulation though...


Using what imagery?
0 likes   
Top
JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:
Contact JonathanBelles

#213 Postby JonathanBelles » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:46 pm

it went poof!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9490
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

#214 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:47 pm

Stratosphere747 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I see circulation though...


Using what imagery?



x-ray..... :lol:
0 likes   
Top
caneman

#215 Postby caneman » Tue Aug 15, 2006 9:49 pm

Anyone know if that ULL parked over us here in Tampa is suppose to weaken, move out. If so when, where? Until and if it is gone, looks like both systems will struggle
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
EmeraldCoast1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2003 10:35 am
Location: Pensacola, FL

#216 Postby EmeraldCoast1 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:01 pm

I know it's OT, but we just got a sweeeet gust front prior to the big batch of t-storms that is rolling through the area here in P'cola. It went from a humid August evening to something like October in a matter of about 8 minutes. Then the rain and lightning came, so I moved it inside. Gotta love summer weather patterns in the South!
0 likes   
Top
sevenleft
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 315
Joined: Sat Aug 05, 2006 2:36 pm

#217 Postby sevenleft » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:07 pm

This'll be the shortest lived Invest ever...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:
Contact TS Zack

#218 Postby TS Zack » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:08 pm

That MCS is packing some punch...

15 21:53 N 33 G 45 10.00 Thunderstorm in Vicinity Light Rain Squalls and Windy FEW027 BKN110 80 71 30.06 1017.7
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
EmeraldCoast1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 114
Joined: Tue Sep 30, 2003 10:35 am
Location: Pensacola, FL

#219 Postby EmeraldCoast1 » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:16 pm

skysummit wrote:From the 10:30 TWO:

LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.


Kinda makes me wonder what WILL happen IF anything happens with this area.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
LaBreeze
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1497
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:57 pm
Location: SW Louisiana

#220 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Aug 15, 2006 10:32 pm

Local mets out of Lafayette and Lake Charles are not worried about "blob" in the GOM. Channel 3 KATC met, Rob Perillo, stated that this may bring in some slight showers later in the week to this area, but he's looking for pressures to begin dropping in the Western Carib. and GOM in about a week to ten days from now. He seemed more concerned about this than anything. Would be nice to get some cooling rains from whatever is in the GOM - even some clouds to cut out that scorching sun. 110 degree heat index at 10:00 p.m. at Chenault Air Field in Lake Charles tonight.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Blown Away, FrontRunner, Hurricaneman, MetroMike and 52 guests