Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
bob rulz
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1705
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 7:30 pm
Location: Salt Lake City, Utah

#461 Postby bob rulz » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:03 am

Interesting. Even these low pressure systems are taunting us this year.
0 likes   
Top
Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#462 Postby Stormavoider » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:06 am

I'm not sure if it's sending us a Valentine or mooning us.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-77&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 690
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 3:06 pm
Location: Ogden, NC
Contact:
Contact Bane

#463 Postby Bane » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:26 am

Minor convection is firing around teh center. If it increases in coverage a depression may form.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#464 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:43 am

First visibles reveal a closed LLC, but removed from the convection just firing up to it SW.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146178
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#465 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:44 am

The question is if recon will go and check it later today.I say no but they can send it if organization occurs rapidly this morning.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#466 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:55 am

I can see that there is some northerly shear over the system that's preventing storms forming north and east of the center. However if the LLC moves little more closer to the coast the shear decreases.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

There is small upper-level ridge just to it's SW. I can see why TPC is still concerned about this developing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
Last edited by Thunder44 on Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#467 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:59 am

Image

August 16 and this the best thing that we can come up with!!!
0 likes   
Top
willjnewton

#468 Postby willjnewton » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:03 am

can someone please post the computer model runs for today on this system, okay thanks
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#469 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:06 am

willjnewton wrote:can someone please post the computer model runs for today on this system, okay thanks


Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#470 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:11 am

Interesting some of models including the GFDL turn this storm back SW towards Georiga and Florida. Althought it appears the center is little further north the models initialized this morning.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BOPPA
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 53
Joined: Thu Jun 29, 2006 6:19 am
Location: Ft. Myers, FL.

#471 Postby BOPPA » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:13 am

Thunder - Just noticed the same thing. Local met this morning said that even
tough we were "sandwiched" between both systems - they would both be
moving away from us here in SWFl. - Then I see this !?!?!?!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxwatcher91
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1606
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 2:43 pm
Location: Keene, NH
Contact:
Contact wxwatcher91

#472 Postby wxwatcher91 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:13 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
storms in NC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2338
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2005 2:58 pm
Location: Wallace,NC 40 miles NE of Wilm
Contact:
Contact storms in NC

#473 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:22 am

Looks like they still don't know what it is going to do. I have no guess either.
It is small
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#474 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:34 am

Dvorak first T numbers:

16/1145 UTC 32.1N 76.4W T1.0/1.0 93L
0 likes   
Top
Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#475 Postby Stormavoider » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:38 am

Thunder44 wrote:Dvorak first T numbers:

16/1145 UTC 32.1N 76.4W T1.0/1.0 93L


I think this year we are using Dr. Kevorkian numbers.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146178
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#476 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:40 am

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060816 1200 060817 0000 060817 1200 060818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.8N 76.5W 33.0N 76.9W 32.4N 77.4W 31.3N 78.4W
BAMM 32.8N 76.5W 33.1N 76.8W 32.9N 77.3W 32.2N 77.8W
A98E 32.8N 76.5W 34.0N 77.0W 34.1N 76.5W 34.8N 74.0W
LBAR 32.8N 76.5W 33.7N 76.6W 34.7N 76.7W 35.6N 76.3W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060818 1200 060819 1200 060820 1200 060821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 80.3W 27.6N 84.8W 25.8N 89.4W 25.0N 93.9W
BAMM 31.1N 78.8W 28.6N 81.0W 26.6N 83.8W 25.7N 87.8W
A98E 34.5N 73.0W 34.6N 72.1W 35.1N 70.3W 36.9N 65.4W
LBAR 36.5N 75.7W 38.2N 73.9W 40.3N 69.0W 43.9N 59.8W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.8N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 75.4W DIRM12 = 340DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 30.1N LONM24 = 75.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

12:00z Models.The spagetti continues.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#477 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:44 am

12:15 UTC image off GHCC, looks like convection just moved over the LLC
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TampaFl
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1904
Age: 67
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 11:23 am
Location: Tampa, FL

#478 Postby TampaFl » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:47 am

What about the area just to the south of the low level swirl? It has really fired up this morning, (looks more impressive). Could this be inhibiting the developement or could this be a new center trying to form? Pro mets /others thoughts and comments welcomed.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html



Robert 8-)
0 likes   
Top
Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#479 Postby Stormavoider » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:48 am

Thunder44 wrote:12:15 UTC image off GHCC, looks like convection just moved over the LLC


I saw that. The LLC also seemed to move slightly SW.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
terstorm1012
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1314
Age: 43
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
Location: Millersburg, PA

#480 Postby terstorm1012 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:50 am

a front just came off the coast though...wouldn't the front pick it up and send 'er out to sea?
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, AnnularCane, duilaslol and 53 guests