Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[bob rulz]

Interesting. Even these low pressure systems are taunting us this year.

[Stormavoider]

I'm not sure if it's sending us a Valentine or mooning us.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=32&lon=-77&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

[Bane]

Minor convection is firing around teh center. If it increases in coverage a depression may form.

[Thunder44]

First visibles reveal a closed LLC, but removed from the convection just firing up to it SW.

[cycloneye]

The question is if recon will go and check it later today.I say no but they can send it if organization occurs rapidly this morning.

[Thunder44]

I can see that there is some northerly shear over the system that's preventing storms forming north and east of the center. However if the LLC moves little more closer to the coast the shear decreases.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

There is small upper-level ridge just to it's SW. I can see why TPC is still concerned about this developing:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[HURAKAN]

August 16 and this the best thing that we can come up with!!!

[willjnewton]

can someone please post the computer model runs for today on this system, okay thanks

[HURAKAN]

can someone please post the computer model runs for today on this system, okay thanks

[Thunder44]

Interesting some of models including the GFDL turn this storm back SW towards Georiga and Florida. Althought it appears the center is little further north the models initialized this morning.

[BOPPA]

Thunder - Just noticed the same thing. Local met this morning said that even
tough we were "sandwiched" between both systems - they would both be
moving away from us here in SWFl. - Then I see this !?!?!?!

[wxwatcher91]

[storms in NC]

Looks like they still don't know what it is going to do. I have no guess either.
It is small

[Thunder44]

Dvorak first T numbers:

16/1145 UTC 32.1N 76.4W T1.0/1.0 93L

[Stormavoider]

Dvorak first T numbers:

16/1145 UTC 32.1N 76.4W T1.0/1.0 93L

I think this year we are using Dr. Kevorkian numbers.

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060816 1200 060817 0000 060817 1200 060818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.8N 76.5W 33.0N 76.9W 32.4N 77.4W 31.3N 78.4W
BAMM 32.8N 76.5W 33.1N 76.8W 32.9N 77.3W 32.2N 77.8W
A98E 32.8N 76.5W 34.0N 77.0W 34.1N 76.5W 34.8N 74.0W
LBAR 32.8N 76.5W 33.7N 76.6W 34.7N 76.7W 35.6N 76.3W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 30KTS 33KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060818 1200 060819 1200 060820 1200 060821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.0N 80.3W 27.6N 84.8W 25.8N 89.4W 25.0N 93.9W
BAMM 31.1N 78.8W 28.6N 81.0W 26.6N 83.8W 25.7N 87.8W
A98E 34.5N 73.0W 34.6N 72.1W 35.1N 70.3W 36.9N 65.4W
LBAR 36.5N 75.7W 38.2N 73.9W 40.3N 69.0W 43.9N 59.8W
SHIP 35KTS 36KTS 39KTS 43KTS
DSHP 35KTS 32KTS 33KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 32.8N LONCUR = 76.5W DIRCUR = 335DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 31.1N LONM12 = 75.4W DIRM12 = 340DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 30.1N LONM24 = 75.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models.The spagetti continues.

[Thunder44]

12:15 UTC image off GHCC, looks like convection just moved over the LLC

[TampaFl]

What about the area just to the south of the low level swirl? It has really fired up this morning, (looks more impressive). Could this be inhibiting the developement or could this be a new center trying to form? Pro mets /others thoughts and comments welcomed.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html



Robert

[Stormavoider]

12:15 UTC image off GHCC, looks like convection just moved over the LLC

I saw that. The LLC also seemed to move slightly SW.

[terstorm1012]

a front just came off the coast though...wouldn't the front pick it up and send 'er out to sea?