93L Invest Recon discussion

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34091
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

93L Invest Recon discussion

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:14 am

It looks like they may be having a flight after all! Could we have TD4 today?
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Regit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2341
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:02 pm
Location: Myrtle Beach

#2 Postby Regit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:16 am

Probably. Even if shear is forecast by some to rip it apart, that doesn't stop what is happening NOW. Plus, I won't feel 100% sure about that much shear until I actually see it.
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34091
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:44 am

And they're off...do we have TD4?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#4 Postby Damar91 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:45 am

My gut says no.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#5 Postby Damar91 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:46 am

Yea! I made it to a Cat 1....Now back to our regularly scheduled thread....
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#6 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:47 am

It's probably a TD already. But TPC may not start advisories on it, if the surface winds aren't stronger than 25mph.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#7 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:51 am

Yeah we have TD04.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23019
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#8 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:51 am

Thunder44 wrote:It's probably a TD already. But TPC may not start advisories on it, if the surface winds aren't stronger than 25mph.


Definitely a weak closed LLC. Buoy reports indicate winds 10-15 kts around it. Convection already starting to be driven SSW of the LLC by increasing northerly winds. Plane better hurry before it's gone. New 12Z GFS indicates N-NNE winds up to 70 kts over it at 200mb by tomorrow afternoon.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Buck
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1175
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:04 pm
Location: Atlanta, GA

#9 Postby Buck » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:52 am

Yeah, I bet they'll find a minimal TD.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#10 Postby WmE » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:54 am

Buck wrote:Yeah, I bet they'll find a minimal TD.


Yeah, I agree. However, it won't become Debby!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
deltadog03
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3580
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2005 6:16 pm
Location: Macon, GA

#11 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:55 am

Well, like wxman said...They better hurry up cuz its about to be ripped apart.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NONAME
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 373
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:15 am
Location: Where the Wind Blows

#12 Postby NONAME » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:00 am

So how long will it take to get there.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#13 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:01 am

deltadog03 wrote:Well, like wxman said...They better hurry up cuz its about to be ripped apart.


It kind funny how many are expecting to be ripped appart later today or tomorrow, yet TPC has scheduled more flights for tomorrow and the next morning. I don't think the shear is going to increase enough today to prevent it from developing. A weak TS is possible before then.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Regit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2341
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 9:02 pm
Location: Myrtle Beach

#14 Postby Regit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:05 am

Isn't the shear supposed to come from the approaching front? Looks like the front is slowing down and flattening out (becoming more E-W as opposed to N-S). If this is the shear source, it's not a done deal.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#15 Postby WmE » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:05 am

Thunder44 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Well, like wxman said...They better hurry up cuz its about to be ripped apart.


It kind funny how many are expecting to be ripped appart later today or tomorrow, yet TPC has scheduled more flights for tomorrow and the next morning. I don't think the shear is going to increase enough today to prevent it from developing. A weak TS is possible by tonight.


Well, if it became a TS, it'd be a typical storm for 2006, sheared and short lived. :D
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Thunder44
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5922
Age: 44
Joined: Mon Jun 09, 2003 7:53 pm
Location: New York City

#16 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:14 am

Regit wrote:Isn't the shear supposed to come from the approaching front? Looks like the front is slowing down and flattening out (becoming more E-W as opposed to N-S). If this is the shear source, it's not a done deal.


That's what it looks to me. Although it does it look shear will probably increase. I don't believe it will be as strong as what the GFS is showing.
0 likes   
Top
willjnewton

#17 Postby willjnewton » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:14 am

has this system developed into a depression it???and if so where will it go???
0 likes   
Top
Stormavoider
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 671
Joined: Sat Jul 01, 2006 4:37 pm
Location: Spring Hill Fl.

#18 Postby Stormavoider » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:16 am

willjnewton wrote:has this system developed into a depression it???and if so where will it go???


Not yet. It seems like it will head in the general direction of Georgia.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
NONAME
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 373
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2006 8:15 am
Location: Where the Wind Blows

#19 Postby NONAME » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:18 am

No NHC has not declare it a depression. When it becomes one you will find it here. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov. About the track im not sure.
0 likes   
Top
willjnewton

#20 Postby willjnewton » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:18 am

but could it develop into a tropical depression soon???
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: gib, Google Adsense [Bot], Hurricaneman, islandgirl45, Killjoy12, MarioProtVI, Miami Storm Tracker, NingNing and 49 guests