93L Invest Recon discussion

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CrazyC83
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93L Invest Recon discussion

#1 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:14 am

It looks like they may be having a flight after all! Could we have TD4 today?
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Regit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:16 am

Probably. Even if shear is forecast by some to rip it apart, that doesn't stop what is happening NOW. Plus, I won't feel 100% sure about that much shear until I actually see it.
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#3 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:44 am

And they're off...do we have TD4?
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#4 Postby Damar91 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:45 am

My gut says no.
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#5 Postby Damar91 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:46 am

Yea! I made it to a Cat 1....Now back to our regularly scheduled thread....
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#6 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:47 am

It's probably a TD already. But TPC may not start advisories on it, if the surface winds aren't stronger than 25mph.
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#7 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:51 am

Yeah we have TD04.

Image
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#8 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:51 am

Thunder44 wrote:It's probably a TD already. But TPC may not start advisories on it, if the surface winds aren't stronger than 25mph.


Definitely a weak closed LLC. Buoy reports indicate winds 10-15 kts around it. Convection already starting to be driven SSW of the LLC by increasing northerly winds. Plane better hurry before it's gone. New 12Z GFS indicates N-NNE winds up to 70 kts over it at 200mb by tomorrow afternoon.
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#9 Postby Buck » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:52 am

Yeah, I bet they'll find a minimal TD.
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#10 Postby WmE » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:54 am

Buck wrote:Yeah, I bet they'll find a minimal TD.


Yeah, I agree. However, it won't become Debby!
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#11 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 10:55 am

Well, like wxman said...They better hurry up cuz its about to be ripped apart.
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#12 Postby NONAME » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:00 am

So how long will it take to get there.
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#13 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:01 am

deltadog03 wrote:Well, like wxman said...They better hurry up cuz its about to be ripped apart.


It kind funny how many are expecting to be ripped appart later today or tomorrow, yet TPC has scheduled more flights for tomorrow and the next morning. I don't think the shear is going to increase enough today to prevent it from developing. A weak TS is possible before then.
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#14 Postby Regit » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:05 am

Isn't the shear supposed to come from the approaching front? Looks like the front is slowing down and flattening out (becoming more E-W as opposed to N-S). If this is the shear source, it's not a done deal.
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#15 Postby WmE » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:05 am

Thunder44 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:Well, like wxman said...They better hurry up cuz its about to be ripped apart.


It kind funny how many are expecting to be ripped appart later today or tomorrow, yet TPC has scheduled more flights for tomorrow and the next morning. I don't think the shear is going to increase enough today to prevent it from developing. A weak TS is possible by tonight.


Well, if it became a TS, it'd be a typical storm for 2006, sheared and short lived. :D
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#16 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:14 am

Regit wrote:Isn't the shear supposed to come from the approaching front? Looks like the front is slowing down and flattening out (becoming more E-W as opposed to N-S). If this is the shear source, it's not a done deal.


That's what it looks to me. Although it does it look shear will probably increase. I don't believe it will be as strong as what the GFS is showing.
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willjnewton

#17 Postby willjnewton » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:14 am

has this system developed into a depression it???and if so where will it go???
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#18 Postby Stormavoider » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:16 am

willjnewton wrote:has this system developed into a depression it???and if so where will it go???


Not yet. It seems like it will head in the general direction of Georgia.
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#19 Postby NONAME » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:18 am

No NHC has not declare it a depression. When it becomes one you will find it here. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov. About the track im not sure.
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#20 Postby willjnewton » Wed Aug 16, 2006 11:18 am

but could it develop into a tropical depression soon???
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