93L Invest Recon discussion

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Thunder44
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#41 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:20 pm

It just a small-size system folks. That doesn't make it any less a TD. Just less people likely to be affected by it.
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#42 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:29 pm

Well in case there's any arguement how much the flight level winds are reaching he surface. There is one ship report in there area that reported 24kt winds sustained.

SHIP S 1800 33.40 -77.60 7 109 20 24.1 - 4.9 6.0
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#43 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:30 pm

wxman57 wrote:So what will the NHC do?....
If they find a closed LLC with winds to support tropical depression strength then it will be called a tropical depression. :lol:
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#44 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:31 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:So what will the NHC do?....
If they find a closed LLC with winds to support tropical depression strength then it will be called a tropical depression. :lol:


There is no windspeed criteria for a TD.
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#45 Postby StormsAhead » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:32 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:So what will the NHC do?....
If they find a closed LLC with winds to support tropical depression strength then it will be called a tropical depression. :lol:


Actually, there's no threshold for tropical depression strength. Anything under 39 mph is a depression, as long as it meets the other criteria.
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#46 Postby Stormavoider » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:34 pm

Why no recon data?
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#47 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:34 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:So what will the NHC do?....
If they find a closed LLC with winds to support tropical depression strength then it will be called a tropical depression. :lol:


Not necessarily. If they determine that the convection is becoming more removed from the center, and that trend is likely to continue, then they may call it a weak surface low and not name it.
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#48 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:35 pm

Where is the link to the data?
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#49 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:36 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Where is the link to the data?


http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/sta ... XXX50.KNHC
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#50 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:42 pm

The programmer to send them online must be down.
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#51 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 16, 2006 1:57 pm

Well the transmission has stopped for an hour.Let's see if soon they transmit again.
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#52 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:10 pm

It could just be wait and see now...
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#53 Postby jimpsummers » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:it may be a 25KT depression, but I cannot see it lasting for 24 hours


25kts may be a bit generous, as may be your 24 hours. Already looks like shear is increasing and convection is stretching out to the SSW of the weak LLC. In fact, the LLC is less defined than a couple hours ago. May not be there by the time recon arrives.


I disagree. If anything it looks better organized. I don't see shear increasing over the system. There has been a recent blow up in convection around the center. It looks more like outflow over the system spreading out on all sides except maybe the NW Quad. The high cirrus clouds are prevent seeing the center visible imagery anymore. You can also see the LLC better defiend on radar with banding features evident:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes


Take a look at this image I just snapped. The LLC is about 50-60 miles NE of the nearest thunderstorms. Separation between LLC and convection is increasing. Max winds reported at nearest buoys remain 10-15 kts.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lb.gif



It looks like to me from the radar that possibly a new LLC has formed under the strongest convection. It may yet get sheared apart, but for the moment it does look pretty good. But thankfully this year, systems have been looking decent, then they vaporize (as opposed to last year when just about everything developed).
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#54 Postby P.K. » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:25 pm

Not sure what is up with the RSMC Miami miniobs archive page. This METAR is in the last file.

SAZZ40 KAWN 161700 RRU
METAR BIKF 161730Z 33006KT 9999 BKN016 12/08 Q1019=
METAR KN

Thats Keflavik in Iceland!

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2006/HDOB/HDOB.200608161739.txt
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#55 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:30 pm

jimpsummers wrote:
It looks like to me from the radar that possibly a new LLC has formed under the strongest convection. It may yet get sheared apart, but for the moment it does look pretty good. But thankfully this year, systems have been looking decent, then they vaporize (as opposed to last year when just about everything developed).


You can see a weak center on this McIDAS image near 32.3N/76.9W. That's the position I get on radar as well as matching up with the recent NHC model initialization. The low is northeast of the area of squalls. Shear is incrasing across the system. Inflow quite poor. I don't think it should be called a TD as it is more than likely to dissipate overnight:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Ld.gif
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#56 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:43 pm

I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.
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#57 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:46 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.


I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow. ;-)
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#58 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:51 pm

Don't be suprised if you see the recon reports come out again and the first advisory comes out about the same time. :D
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#59 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:54 pm

Thunder44 wrote:Don't be suprised if you see the recon reports come out again and the first advisory comes out about the same time. :D


I'm getting a flood of recon reports now. Looks like they fixed the problem.
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#60 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:Don't be suprised if you see the recon reports come out again and the first advisory comes out about the same time. :D


I'm getting a flood of recon reports now. Looks like they fixed the problem.


Good. No conspiracy here. :D
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