93L Invest Recon discussion
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miamicanes177 wrote:If they find a closed LLC with winds to support tropical depression strength then it will be called a tropical depression.wxman57 wrote:So what will the NHC do?....
Actually, there's no threshold for tropical depression strength. Anything under 39 mph is a depression, as long as it meets the other criteria.
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- wxman57
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miamicanes177 wrote:If they find a closed LLC with winds to support tropical depression strength then it will be called a tropical depression.wxman57 wrote:So what will the NHC do?....
Not necessarily. If they determine that the convection is becoming more removed from the center, and that trend is likely to continue, then they may call it a weak surface low and not name it.
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- cycloneye
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CrazyC83 wrote:Where is the link to the data?
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/sta ... XXX50.KNHC
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- cycloneye
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Well the transmission has stopped for an hour.Let's see if soon they transmit again.
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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wxman57 wrote:Thunder44 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:it may be a 25KT depression, but I cannot see it lasting for 24 hours
25kts may be a bit generous, as may be your 24 hours. Already looks like shear is increasing and convection is stretching out to the SSW of the weak LLC. In fact, the LLC is less defined than a couple hours ago. May not be there by the time recon arrives.
I disagree. If anything it looks better organized. I don't see shear increasing over the system. There has been a recent blow up in convection around the center. It looks more like outflow over the system spreading out on all sides except maybe the NW Quad. The high cirrus clouds are prevent seeing the center visible imagery anymore. You can also see the LLC better defiend on radar with banding features evident:
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.ph ... 1&loop=yes
Take a look at this image I just snapped. The LLC is about 50-60 miles NE of the nearest thunderstorms. Separation between LLC and convection is increasing. Max winds reported at nearest buoys remain 10-15 kts.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Lb.gif
It looks like to me from the radar that possibly a new LLC has formed under the strongest convection. It may yet get sheared apart, but for the moment it does look pretty good. But thankfully this year, systems have been looking decent, then they vaporize (as opposed to last year when just about everything developed).
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- P.K.
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Not sure what is up with the RSMC Miami miniobs archive page. This METAR is in the last file.
SAZZ40 KAWN 161700 RRU
METAR BIKF 161730Z 33006KT 9999 BKN016 12/08 Q1019=
METAR KN
Thats Keflavik in Iceland!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2006/HDOB/HDOB.200608161739.txt
SAZZ40 KAWN 161700 RRU
METAR BIKF 161730Z 33006KT 9999 BKN016 12/08 Q1019=
METAR KN
Thats Keflavik in Iceland!
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/recon/2006/HDOB/HDOB.200608161739.txt
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- wxman57
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jimpsummers wrote:
It looks like to me from the radar that possibly a new LLC has formed under the strongest convection. It may yet get sheared apart, but for the moment it does look pretty good. But thankfully this year, systems have been looking decent, then they vaporize (as opposed to last year when just about everything developed).
You can see a weak center on this McIDAS image near 32.3N/76.9W. That's the position I get on radar as well as matching up with the recent NHC model initialization. The low is northeast of the area of squalls. Shear is incrasing across the system. Inflow quite poor. I don't think it should be called a TD as it is more than likely to dissipate overnight:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/93Ld.gif
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