93L Invest Recon discussion

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TS Zack
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#61 Postby TS Zack » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:56 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.


I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow. ;-)


Thats not right.. A TD is a TD don't matter what shift a person works. Supposed to take pride in your job, I find comments like that will make your degree and credibility be looked down upon.

If thats the case, why doesn't a doctor just let a person die instead of trying to revive them when we know they will die within the next 24hrs.
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#62 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:56 pm

No signs of a depression...all south and southwest winds so far...
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#63 Postby Thunder44 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:57 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:No signs of a depression...all south and southwest winds so far...


VDM was sent out. This is likely going to be upgraded at 5pm.
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Derek Ortt

#64 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:58 pm

they just sent a vortex
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#65 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 2:58 pm

TS Zack wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.


I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow. ;-)


Thats not right.. A TD is a TD don't matter what shift a person works. Supposed to take pride in your job, I find comments like that will make your degree and credibility be looked down upon.

If thats the case, why doesn't a doctor just let a person die instead of trying to revive them when we know they will die within the next 24hrs.


My main point was that it would serve no one to call this thing a TD if it was going to dissipate in the next 6-12 hours without affecting anyone.
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#66 Postby dizzyfish » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:00 pm

Question. Do they only transmit VDM's when they are going to upgrade a system? Still learning - and thanks for all the good info! :wink:
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#67 Postby miamicanes177 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:My main point was that it would serve no one to call this thing a TD if it was going to dissipate in the next 6-12 hours without affecting anyone.
Because a TD is a TD. And considering that NOAA is calling for such an active season, it seems like they will be very happy to jump on any little thing that forms.
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#68 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:01 pm

It is a depression nice well defined LLC with convection over it. I seen many a depression form in die. It doe's not mean its not. Even so that 200 plus winds are wrong. Also the convection seems to be holding with this one even so the LLC is on the northern side.
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#69 Postby RattleMan » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
TS Zack wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.


I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow. ;-)


Thats not right.. A TD is a TD don't matter what shift a person works. Supposed to take pride in your job, I find comments like that will make your degree and credibility be looked down upon.

If thats the case, why doesn't a doctor just let a person die instead of trying to revive them when we know they will die within the next 24hrs.


My main point was that it would serve no one to call this thing a TD if it was going to dissipate in the next 6-12 hours without affecting anyone.


How about something like TD10? That degenerated in 18 hours and didn't look like it was going to affect anyone. Or is this something completely different? I guess a better question is: Would _you_ have initiated advisories on TD10?
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#70 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:03 pm

RattleMan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
TS Zack wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.


I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow. ;-)


Thats not right.. A TD is a TD don't matter what shift a person works. Supposed to take pride in your job, I find comments like that will make your degree and credibility be looked down upon.

If thats the case, why doesn't a doctor just let a person die instead of trying to revive them when we know they will die within the next 24hrs.


My main point was that it would serve no one to call this thing a TD if it was going to dissipate in the next 6-12 hours without affecting anyone.


How about something like TD10? That degenerated in 18 hours and didn't look like it was going to affect anyone Or is this something completely different? I guess a better question is: Would _you_ have initiated advisories on TD10?


Exactly...mind you, its remnants DID do something...catastrophic...
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#71 Postby sevenleft » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:03 pm

dizzyfish wrote:Question. Do they only transmit VDM's when they are going to upgrade a system? Still learning - and thanks for all the good info! :wink:
They transmit Vortex messages whenever they pass through the closed circulation of a storm.

When they are investigating a developing system the key thing is to find a closed circulation. If they do, they send a VDM. If they don't, it means there isn't a closed circulation and that its not a tropical low...

Once a closed circulation develops, they will keep sending vortex messages each time they pass through the center, reporting the latest pressure, winds, temperature, etc....
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

#72 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:03 pm

Td10 last year look very good when they upgraded it. Quickscat even shown some 35 knot area's.
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#73 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:06 pm

I think we will have Tropical Depression Four at 5:00 pm, with 30mph winds.
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#74 Postby clfenwi » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:07 pm

WONT41 KNHC 162006
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 MILES PER HOUR IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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#75 Postby wxman57 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:07 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:I think we will have Tropical Depression Four at 5:00 pm, with 30mph winds.


Nope. Special statement just issued.
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#76 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:08 pm

Ok, I am sick and tired of you people saying this thing is going to fall apart...if it does anything, it is going to get better organized...12Z GFS was wrong...there is a stationary front south of NC/SC border...Shear will NOT INCREASE...there is a bubbling ridge of high pressure that is centered over the NE today that will push this thing if anything to the south or southwest...that would put this thing directly over the upper level ridge...therefore....DECREASING SHEAR is likely....and a W to WSW motion can be expected over the next two to three days....
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#77 Postby dizzyfish » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:08 pm

sevenleft wrote:
dizzyfish wrote:Question. Do they only transmit VDM's when they are going to upgrade a system? Still learning - and thanks for all the good info! :wink:
They transmit Vortex messages whenever they pass through the closed circulation of a storm.

When they are investigating a developing system the key thing is to find a closed circulation. If they do, they send a VDM. If they don't, it means there isn't a closed circulation and that its not a tropical low...

Once a closed circulation develops, they will keep sending vortex messages each time they pass through the center, reporting the latest pressure, winds, temperature, etc....


Got it. Thank you!
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#78 Postby sevenleft » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:I think we will have Tropical Depression Four at 5:00 pm, with 30mph winds.


Nope. Special statement just issued.
I guess they want tomorrow off. :lol:
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#79 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:09 pm

Just give it a couple of days...it will organize...just be patient...
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#80 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 3:09 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:Ok, I am sick and tired of you people saying this thing is going to fall apart...if it does anything, it is going to get better organized...12Z GFS was wrong...there is a stationary front south of NC/SC border...Shear will NOT INCREASE...there is a bubbling ridge of high pressure that is centered over the NE today that will push this thing if anything to the south or southwest...that would put this thing directly over the upper level ridge...therefore....DECREASING SHEAR is likely....and a W to WSW motion can be expected over the next two to three days....


Nice...Here comes the hounds
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