93L Invest Recon discussion

[TS Zack]

I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.

I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow.

Thats not right.. A TD is a TD don't matter what shift a person works. Supposed to take pride in your job, I find comments like that will make your degree and credibility be looked down upon.

If thats the case, why doesn't a doctor just let a person die instead of trying to revive them when we know they will die within the next 24hrs.

[CrazyC83]

No signs of a depression...all south and southwest winds so far...

[Thunder44]

No signs of a depression...all south and southwest winds so far...

VDM was sent out. This is likely going to be upgraded at 5pm.

[Derek Ortt]

they just sent a vortex

[wxman57]

I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.

I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow.

Thats not right.. A TD is a TD don't matter what shift a person works. Supposed to take pride in your job, I find comments like that will make your degree and credibility be looked down upon.

If thats the case, why doesn't a doctor just let a person die instead of trying to revive them when we know they will die within the next 24hrs.

My main point was that it would serve no one to call this thing a TD if it was going to dissipate in the next 6-12 hours without affecting anyone.

[dizzyfish]

Question. Do they only transmit VDM's when they are going to upgrade a system? Still learning - and thanks for all the good info!

[miamicanes177]

My main point was that it would serve no one to call this thing a TD if it was going to dissipate in the next 6-12 hours without affecting anyone.

Because a TD is a TD. And considering that NOAA is calling for such an active season, it seems like they will be very happy to jump on any little thing that forms.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It is a depression nice well defined LLC with convection over it. I seen many a depression form in die. It doe's not mean its not. Even so that 200 plus winds are wrong. Also the convection seems to be holding with this one even so the LLC is on the northern side.

[RattleMan]

I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.

I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow.

Thats not right.. A TD is a TD don't matter what shift a person works. Supposed to take pride in your job, I find comments like that will make your degree and credibility be looked down upon.

If thats the case, why doesn't a doctor just let a person die instead of trying to revive them when we know they will die within the next 24hrs.

My main point was that it would serve no one to call this thing a TD if it was going to dissipate in the next 6-12 hours without affecting anyone.

How about something like TD10? That degenerated in 18 hours and didn't look like it was going to affect anyone. Or is this something completely different? I guess a better question is: Would _you_ have initiated advisories on TD10?

[CrazyC83]

I'd call it a TD if there is a closed circulation.

I wouldn't if it would mean I'd have to work the night shift for something that'll be gone tomorrow.

Thats not right.. A TD is a TD don't matter what shift a person works. Supposed to take pride in your job, I find comments like that will make your degree and credibility be looked down upon.

If thats the case, why doesn't a doctor just let a person die instead of trying to revive them when we know they will die within the next 24hrs.

My main point was that it would serve no one to call this thing a TD if it was going to dissipate in the next 6-12 hours without affecting anyone.

How about something like TD10? That degenerated in 18 hours and didn't look like it was going to affect anyone Or is this something completely different? I guess a better question is: Would _you_ have initiated advisories on TD10?

Exactly...mind you, its remnants DID do something...catastrophic...

[sevenleft]

Question. Do they only transmit VDM's when they are going to upgrade a system? Still learning - and thanks for all the good info!

They transmit Vortex messages whenever they pass through the closed circulation of a storm.

When they are investigating a developing system the key thing is to find a closed circulation. If they do, they send a VDM. If they don't, it means there isn't a closed circulation and that its not a tropical low...

Once a closed circulation develops, they will keep sending vortex messages each time they pass through the center, reporting the latest pressure, winds, temperature, etc....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Td10 last year look very good when they upgraded it. Quickscat even shown some 35 knot area's.

[CrazyC83]

I think we will have Tropical Depression Four at 5:00 pm, with 30mph winds.

[clfenwi]

WONT41 KNHC 162006
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
405 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 MILES PER HOUR IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[wxman57]

I think we will have Tropical Depression Four at 5:00 pm, with 30mph winds.

Nope. Special statement just issued.

['CaneFreak]

Ok, I am sick and tired of you people saying this thing is going to fall apart...if it does anything, it is going to get better organized...12Z GFS was wrong...there is a stationary front south of NC/SC border...Shear will NOT INCREASE...there is a bubbling ridge of high pressure that is centered over the NE today that will push this thing if anything to the south or southwest...that would put this thing directly over the upper level ridge...therefore....DECREASING SHEAR is likely....and a W to WSW motion can be expected over the next two to three days....

[dizzyfish]

Question. Do they only transmit VDM's when they are going to upgrade a system? Still learning - and thanks for all the good info!

They transmit Vortex messages whenever they pass through the closed circulation of a storm.

When they are investigating a developing system the key thing is to find a closed circulation. If they do, they send a VDM. If they don't, it means there isn't a closed circulation and that its not a tropical low...

Once a closed circulation develops, they will keep sending vortex messages each time they pass through the center, reporting the latest pressure, winds, temperature, etc....

Got it. Thank you!

[sevenleft]

I think we will have Tropical Depression Four at 5:00 pm, with 30mph winds.

Nope. Special statement just issued.

I guess they want tomorrow off.

['CaneFreak]

Just give it a couple of days...it will organize...just be patient...

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ok, I am sick and tired of you people saying this thing is going to fall apart...if it does anything, it is going to get better organized...12Z GFS was wrong...there is a stationary front south of NC/SC border...Shear will NOT INCREASE...there is a bubbling ridge of high pressure that is centered over the NE today that will push this thing if anything to the south or southwest...that would put this thing directly over the upper level ridge...therefore....DECREASING SHEAR is likely....and a W to WSW motion can be expected over the next two to three days....

Nice...Here comes the hounds