Synoptics May Be Setting Up for A Very Active Late Season
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sure... but named storms there aren't a good sign. you get them every now and again.. but they tend to be linked to less atlantic activity. just a little depression or something is no big deal. but to get a real system forming there during hurricane season... you need rather anomalously low shear.. which is usually only providing by conditions similar to an El Nino (strong anticyclone aloft near the dateline.) It hasn't formed yet but.. worth watching.
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- SouthFloridawx
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Well looking at the Navy site
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=frames
It would appear that the CPAC has been very quiet so far this season. Not even one storm has formed.
Central Pacific
91C.INVEST
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=frames
It would appear that the CPAC has been very quiet so far this season. Not even one storm has formed.
Central Pacific
91C.INVEST
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- wxmann_91
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benny wrote:sure... but named storms there aren't a good sign. you get them every now and again.. but they tend to be linked to less atlantic activity. just a little depression or something is no big deal. but to get a real system forming there during hurricane season... you need rather anomalously low shear.. which is usually only providing by conditions similar to an El Nino (strong anticyclone aloft near the dateline.) It hasn't formed yet but.. worth watching.
There is an inverse relationship between E/CPAC activity and Atlantic activity, which make sense, since tropical waves that don't develop in the Atlantic usually develop in the EPAC, and lower shear/higher instability in the EPAC usually correlates to higher shear/lower instability in the Atlantic.
The CPAC is usually one of the quietest basins in the world due to strong upper troughs. However, an El Nino can decrease the wind shear across the basin, and there have been instances where CPAC systems propogate westward and intensify into strong typhoons west of the DL.
So, in summary, I agree with benny that this is not a good sign for the Atlantic storm loving folks.
Of course, the Pacific is still up for grabs, and they can spawn storms as beautiful, if not more beautiful, than their Atlantic counterparts. Best of all, many of them are fish.
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wxmann_91 wrote:Of course, the Pacific is still up for grabs, and they can spawn storms as beautiful, if not more beautiful, than their Atlantic counterparts. Best of all, many of them are fish.
Except an El Nino would mean a higher risk of Mexico seeing a major storm make landfall. Especially later in the season when EPAC storms tend to curve back towards Mexico.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Some of the heavy's rain I'v seen next to Feb 2002 was from the remants from a tropical cyclone from 1997. Some day a cyclone will hit Califorina durning a El nino in come up the coast. A big El nino might even pull a storm farther.
I was going to post a topic just on that matter alone. I have a tracks and all.
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