Synoptics May Be Setting Up for A Very Active Late Season

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Scorpion

#21 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 16, 2006 6:48 pm

Didn't we have a few invests and depressions in the CPAC last year?
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benny
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#22 Postby benny » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:12 pm

sure... but named storms there aren't a good sign. you get them every now and again.. but they tend to be linked to less atlantic activity. just a little depression or something is no big deal. but to get a real system forming there during hurricane season... you need rather anomalously low shear.. which is usually only providing by conditions similar to an El Nino (strong anticyclone aloft near the dateline.) It hasn't formed yet but.. worth watching.
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#23 Postby SouthFloridawx » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:15 pm

Well looking at the Navy site
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=frames

It would appear that the CPAC has been very quiet so far this season. Not even one storm has formed.

Central Pacific

91C.INVEST
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#24 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:24 pm

benny wrote:sure... but named storms there aren't a good sign. you get them every now and again.. but they tend to be linked to less atlantic activity. just a little depression or something is no big deal. but to get a real system forming there during hurricane season... you need rather anomalously low shear.. which is usually only providing by conditions similar to an El Nino (strong anticyclone aloft near the dateline.) It hasn't formed yet but.. worth watching.

There is an inverse relationship between E/CPAC activity and Atlantic activity, which make sense, since tropical waves that don't develop in the Atlantic usually develop in the EPAC, and lower shear/higher instability in the EPAC usually correlates to higher shear/lower instability in the Atlantic.

The CPAC is usually one of the quietest basins in the world due to strong upper troughs. However, an El Nino can decrease the wind shear across the basin, and there have been instances where CPAC systems propogate westward and intensify into strong typhoons west of the DL.

So, in summary, I agree with benny that this is not a good sign for the Atlantic storm loving folks.

Of course, the Pacific is still up for grabs, and they can spawn storms as beautiful, if not more beautiful, than their Atlantic counterparts. Best of all, many of them are fish.
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#25 Postby HurricaneBill » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:31 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:Of course, the Pacific is still up for grabs, and they can spawn storms as beautiful, if not more beautiful, than their Atlantic counterparts. Best of all, many of them are fish.


Except an El Nino would mean a higher risk of Mexico seeing a major storm make landfall. Especially later in the season when EPAC storms tend to curve back towards Mexico.
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#26 Postby wxmann_91 » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:35 pm

Except an El Nino would mean a higher risk of Mexico seeing a major storm make landfall. Especially later in the season when EPAC storms tend to curve back towards Mexico.

Very true. Kenna of 2002 and Pauline of 1997 are recent examples.

But for the most part, they are benign.
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#27 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 16, 2006 7:40 pm

Some of the heavy's rain I'v seen next to Feb 2002 was from the remants from a tropical cyclone from 1997. Some day a cyclone will hit Califorina durning a El nino in come up the coast. A big El nino might even pull a storm farther.
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#28 Postby Cyclenall » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:02 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Some of the heavy's rain I'v seen next to Feb 2002 was from the remants from a tropical cyclone from 1997. Some day a cyclone will hit Califorina durning a El nino in come up the coast. A big El nino might even pull a storm farther.

I was going to post a topic just on that matter alone. I have a tracks and all.
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#29 Postby bob rulz » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:14 pm

I wouldn't mind if a really wet tropical storm came up and dumped rain across the western U.S. The remnants of Olivia in 1982 brought record monthly rainfall here...I wouldn't mind if that happened again.
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#30 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:16 pm

I hope you're wrong, but I have a bad feeling, this will be active. I have read that the East Coast could get hit by a major hurricane, same with Southeast Texas.
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