Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[wxman57]

Development could occur by Sunday with landfall as early as Wednesday. Preparations may have to be made about the time development occurs, or even before.

Who are you and what have you done with wxman57?

I have to tell you that reading those words from you really gives me chills.

It's me! You all know that I'm not one that you'd consider a "someone who wishes hurricanes to form". I've always said that when I identify a potential threat that I'd let you know.

Take a look at the IR and WV satellite. Note the significant moisture increase across northern Venezuela/Colombia and north of Panama. Note that the NAO is strongly negative. Trade winds across the Caribbean are down considerably from a week ago. All the ingredients are there. Am I confident about this development? No, not yet. Let's see how things progress tomorrow and Saturday.

I'm debating whether to say anything to my mother on the MS coast yet. Good news is that she just got a grant check for $26,000 to cover repairs to her home after Katrina. I don't want to bring any bad news until I'm more sure.

[Sanibel]

The models don't see the negative environment dominating the theatre. I'll gamble nothing at all comes from this.

[wxman57]

while I am not as bold and calling for development, this has occurred in the past. Seems like a Danny 1985 scenario

We have clients along the Gulf Coast that may need 72-96 hours for safe shut-down (refineries), so they may need to begin taking some action as early as Sunday. Since the "decision people" generally take the weekends off, we'll have to at least mention this possibility to them before we're very confident.

[skysummit]

while I am not as bold and calling for development, this has occurred in the past. Seems like a Danny 1985 scenario

We have clients along the Gulf Coast that may need 72-96 hours for safe shut-down (refineries), so they may need to begin taking some action as early as Sunday. Since the "decision people" generally take the weekends off, we'll have to at least mention this possibility to them before we're very confident.

Sounds safe to me. I also may send out an email to my people along the gulf coast to let them to know they may want to prepare their generators for emergency use. The bad thing is tomorrow is Friday and most people aren't in the office over the weekend.

[Josephine96]

I love how wishcaster becomes what it becomes

[Stormcenter]

I love how wonderful forecaster becomes what it becomes

Huh?

[Derek Ortt]

I'll have a call on this before Sunday (PNJ would have my head if I waited around too long).

Lets put it this way, if I start making week-end updates on PNJ, you know there is something significant threatening the GOM

[Steve]

Thanks for the headsup 57. Hopefully we won't have to find out how FEMA trailers handle TS conditions or worse. Not a lot of work has been done as far as reconstruction, so if ever there probably wasn't the worst time for property owners to see some action, it's now. But I don't trust the infrastructure. My new problem is moving down to Louisiana Evacuation Zone 2 from the city (which was 3). The only ways out of here are Louisiana Hwy. 1 and Hwy. 308 (both 2 lanes) until US Highway 90 which I hear gridlocks pretty early. We're actually a little higher down here in the Bayous than they are in the City, but because we're surrounded by water, they have to evacuate these more southern areas quicker. That means everyone from Grand Isle to Port Fourchon on the Gulf and then Cut Off, Larose, Galliano, Golden Meadow, etc. people all using the same highways to evacuate themselves and their boats. I've never been down here for storm preparedness, so I'm thinking action we take here will have to precede whatever they do in SE LA by 12 hours in order not to get stuck in 5mph gridlock for a day or so. Thanks for the headsup. You have my attention sir.

Steve

[fci]

I love how wonderful forecaster becomes what it becomes

Which in English means...........

[skysummit]

I love how wonderful forecaster becomes what it becomes

Which in English means...........

When you type the word "W - Caster" on here, it turns into "wonderful forecaster"

[skysummit]

Thanks for the headsup 57. Hopefully we won't have to find out how FEMA trailers handle TS conditions or worse. Not a lot of work has been done as far as reconstruction, so if ever there probably wasn't the worst time for property owners to see some action, it's now. But I don't trust the infrastructure. My new problem is moving down to Louisiana Evacuation Zone 2 from the city (which was 3). The only ways out of here are Louisiana Hwy. 1 and Hwy. 308 (both 2 lanes) until US Highway 90 which I hear gridlocks pretty early. We're actually a little higher down here in the Bayous than they are in the City, but because we're surrounded by water, they have to evacuate these more southern areas quicker. That means everyone from Grand Isle to Port Fourchon on the Gulf and then Cut Off, Larose, Galliano, Golden Meadow, etc. people all using the same highways to evacuate themselves and their boats. I've never been down here for storm preparedness, so I'm thinking action we take here will have to precede whatever they do in SE LA by 12 hours in order not to get stuck in 5mph gridlock for a day or so. Thanks for the headsup. You have my attention sir.

Steve

Steve....just a quick run through of where you're at. If something does threaten the area, the first evacs would be from Grand Isle of course, then south of the Leeville floodgates, then south of the Larose floodgates, then finally south of US Hwy. 90. Of course that's for Lafourche Parish. Of course the states evac plan calls for all of us to get the hell out.

[wxman57]

I love how wonderful forecaster becomes what it becomes

Which in English means...........

When you type the word "W - Caster" on here, it turns into "wonderful forecaster"

Hmm, didn't know that. Had to go back and edit my post where I used that word.

[Stratosphere747]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF WRN CUBA SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE
ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 8N
BETWEEN 60W-90W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 60W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 23N61W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 70W.
ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT... THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND INFLUENCE THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DUE TO THE ITCZ.

[wxman57]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF WRN CUBA SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE
ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 8N
BETWEEN 60W-90W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 60W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 23N61W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 70W.
ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT... THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND INFLUENCE THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DUE TO THE ITCZ.

The first 5 lines of that statement are what's significant. The more active convection in the southwestern Caribbean.

[ROCK]

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF WRN CUBA SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...THE
ITCZ IS ACTIVE OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 8N
BETWEEN 60W-90W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 60W-90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 23N61W. NLY CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N AND E OF 70W.
ANOTHER SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N81W.
CYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. A SMALL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. EXPECT... THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND INFLUENCE THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE
CONVECTION OVER THE S CARIBBEAN...S AMERICA...AND CENTRAL
AMERICA DUE TO THE ITCZ.

definitely a lot jucier down there than earlier this season.....

[miamicanes177]

20-30kts of shear in the caribbean right now. Hard to get too excited about development with those conditions.

[TheShrimper]

Of course, of course, of course. Anymore "of courses" skysummit? Lets see what happens in a couple of days. Maybe no one will have to worry about this, don't take a powder on us now.

[skysummit]

Of course, of course, of course. Anymore "of courses" skysummit? Lets see what happens in a couple of days. Maybe no one will have to worry about this, don't take a powder on us now.

LOL...I didn't realize I had so many "of courses". I was on the phone at the same time I was typing and I wasn't paying attention. Yea, hopefully nothing will happen like that in the immediate future.

[Stormcenter]

20-30kts of shear in the caribbean right now. Hard to get too excited about development with those conditions.

That is what I think will ultimately spare us from any severe hurricanes in the GOM this season.

[Yankeegirl]

So I guess Texas really isnt too involved in this? Because of the High that is supposed to move in... I would just like some rain... thats all...