Senobia wrote:On this loop image, it looks like an eye formed by the 80 degree lat. marker. What say you?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
no eye, just an area void of dense clouds...
Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?
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Extremeweatherguy
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtmlhicksta wrote:What is the NAM showing
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NNW is probably right...based on the steering flow:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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interesting that this area was jumped on by models friday, now it seems to have very little support since it is finally getting its act together. Anybody know why the models seemed to either lose this or flip the target zone to TX vs, LA, AL, MS NWFL? I am trying to decide if I should alarm my mom down on the MS coast...
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Extremeweatherguy wrote:I don't see an eye, but I do see a rapidly organizing system.Senobia wrote:On this loop image, it looks like an eye formed by the 80 degree lat. marker. What say you?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html
no eye...
not yet.....but I agree its getting together quickly...
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PTPatrick wrote:interesting that this area was jumped on by models friday, now it seems to have very little support since it is finally getting its act together. Anybody know why the models seemed to either lose this or flip the target zone to TX vs, LA, AL, MS NWFL? I am trying to decide if I should alarm my mom down on the MS coast...
need some more runs for model support....4-5 days away at least. Anyone from Brownville to FL needs to stay tuned....
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gboudx
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PTPatrick wrote:interesting that this area was jumped on by models friday, now it seems to have very little support since it is finally getting its act together. Anybody know why the models seemed to either lose this or flip the target zone to TX vs, LA, AL, MS NWFL? I am trying to decide if I should alarm my mom down on the MS coast...
Unless she just stresses hard at the mere mention of a hurricane, it may not hurt to just mention it so she can begin preparing.
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From NOLA Disco:
IN ADDITION...THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME
VORT LOBES DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY TUE AND WED WITH THE RIDGE
SHIFTING WESTWARD. THE SURFACE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC BASIN TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ALSO LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
possibly NOLA area hoping the ridge would move west, which would push The carribean thing west...
BUT WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA WHILE A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW ADVANCES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF...PROVIDING FOR AN EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGING RETREATS WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS OTHERWISE ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE WEAKENING FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS INTO A SUBTLE SURFACE
TROF BY THURSDAY. THE WEAKENING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN SHIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEAVING A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE AREA RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING
IN THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ALOFT...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN JUSTIFIED ON THURSDAY. THE
TROF ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. /29
Mobile saying similarly, ridge moves west....
IN ADDITION...THE GFS IS HINTING AT SOME
VORT LOBES DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY TUE AND WED WITH THE RIDGE
SHIFTING WESTWARD. THE SURFACE FRONT THEN LOOKS TO WASH OUT BY FRI
AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC BASIN TRIES TO BUILD INTO THE
EASTERN GULF. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT ALSO LOOKS TO RETURN BY THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN PLAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.
possibly NOLA area hoping the ridge would move west, which would push The carribean thing west...
BUT WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY AS A SURFACE WAVE MOVES FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO
ALABAMA WHILE A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW ADVANCES WESTWARD
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF...PROVIDING FOR AN EVEN MORE
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PROFILE. AMPLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS TO
THE AREA AS THE UPPER RIDGING RETREATS WESTWARD EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...CONVECTION WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS OTHERWISE ARE
UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE CONVECTION. THE WEAKENING FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEAKENS INTO A SUBTLE SURFACE
TROF BY THURSDAY. THE WEAKENING LONGWAVE TROF PATTERN SHIFTS INTO
THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY LEAVING A FAIRLY ZONAL PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES. SUBTLE RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS INTO
THE AREA RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...BUT
STILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS. WITH THE BOUNDARY LINGERING
IN THE AREA AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NOT INDICATING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ALOFT...GOOD CHANCE POPS REMAIN JUSTIFIED ON THURSDAY. THE
TROF ESSENTIALLY DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
SEA BREEZE INITIATED CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL AT OR JUST ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. /29
Mobile saying similarly, ridge moves west....
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gboudx wrote:PTPatrick wrote:interesting that this area was jumped on by models friday, now it seems to have very little support since it is finally getting its act together. Anybody know why the models seemed to either lose this or flip the target zone to TX vs, LA, AL, MS NWFL? I am trying to decide if I should alarm my mom down on the MS coast...
Unless she just stresses hard at the mere mention of a hurricane, it may not hurt to just mention it so she can begin preparing.
Debating, if I should call my boss on a Sunday to dust off, the ole Cane prep protocal......
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Another thing that could play a role here is strength...if this thing were to do the unexpected and bomb over the next 48 hours, then the track senario across the yucatan and into TX may not hold. Seems like a stronger storms tend to get pulled north quicker...either way, this is looking more and more ominous as the day wears on. I hope that by 7:00 tonight we are all saying "so much for that, it was just a midday flareup in the carribean"...
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Couldn't the ridge moving west actually open up a hole between that high and the Bermuda high...and allow the storm to ride up the WEST side of the Bermuda high and into the Eastern Gulf?...By the way, the high is centered over Arkansas now:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html
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