Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[tropicsgal05]

I'm getting a little nervous now . I live in Ft. Walton Beach and i sure hope we here or anyone has to face this storm if it develops. I hope the NHC puts out some information soon.

[PTPatrick]

Heres hoping Debby does NOT do Mississippi...or Louisana, Alabama and Florida for that matter.

[ROCK]

Couldn't the ridge moving west actually open up a hole between that high and the Bermuda high...and allow the storm to ride up the WEST side of the Bermuda high and into the Eastern Gulf?...By the way, the high is centered over Arkansas now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

yes, give the models some time to latch on the current situation. Should see a better future set-up when we get some more runs. Most have lost it today except for the NAM. Didn't think I would ever say that about the NAM....

[ronjon]

PTPatrick, you better hope that ridge doesn't move west - that's the protection against tropical cyclones. If the ridge moves west and high pressure builds into the eastern GOM, where is the weakness for the storm to move into? I'm afraid the central gulf coast area.

[JonathanBelles]

uh-oh....i like ioki better lol

[flyingphish]

Wow ! A friend of mine landed yesterday on Cayman Brac for a one week dive trip...Yikes...Talk about bad timing. This thing looks like it is really firing up !!

[stormtruth]

Heres hoping Debby does NOT do Mississippi...or Louisana, Alabama and Florida for that matter.

you forgot to protect Texas

[gatorcane]

cloud tops are starting to warm this afternoon....

[ROCK]

Heres hoping Debby does NOT do Mississippi...or Louisana, Alabama and Florida for that matter.

you forgot to protect Texas

Yeah thanks....

[JonathanBelles]

td at 5?

[Sanibel]

I have a feeling the board is going to be busy in a few hours.

[PTPatrick]

Well guys, Debby already did Dallas...

[miamicanes177]

td at 5?

no, it will take a good 12-18 more hours of this convection before that could happen.

[carve]

Let's definately hope it doesn't hit mississippi..(if it developes)!! i live in ohio and our church sent some of us down to help with clean-up after katrina....never have i seen so much destruction..the costal area of Long Beach miss. was gone...

[PTPatrick]

just kidding...about that texans...I have have people on bay between Galveston and Houston...I assure you I am not hoping this thing messes with texas...although I could live with another kennedy county hit if this thing has to take aim the US

[JonathanBelles]

could this be the beginning of the 2006 season?

[ROCK]

could this be the beginning of the 2006 season?

It has begun..

[PTPatrick]

For what its worth, I am not seeing that mcuh warming of the cloud tops...still some reds present on the last one I saw.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I too am slightly worried about an opening hole for it to follow up the west side of the bermuda high, but honestly it looks like a central northern gulf hit if it develops and moves rapidly. Now, if it moves a little slower, then it could be more of a NE texas hit. A very fast mover would favor eastern gom IMHO. A very slow mover, like that took 8 days plus would favor big bend to west coast FL since a low will be moving across southern states from rockies then and could pull something that might be drifting around in the gulf. But, anything that took that long may be contending with what might be coming across the atlantic by then.

I am personally thinking a strong cat 3 into MS/AL border area. sorry for anyone living there, but that is my gut feeling of where this will be heading in a few days - Thursday night landfall guess. Low shear, very warm SSTs. Hopefully not stronger, but storms seem to weaken a bit prior to making landfall in that area. I think it may peak as a weak 4.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hopefully we will get a floater over this soon!! The name of this thread may need to be also renamed real soon as well, as it's a bit vague...