Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

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tropicsgal05
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#381 Postby tropicsgal05 » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:18 pm

I'm getting a little nervous now . I live in Ft. Walton Beach and i sure hope we here or anyone has to face this storm if it develops. I hope the NHC puts out some information soon.
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#382 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:20 pm

Heres hoping Debby does NOT do Mississippi...or Louisana, Alabama and Florida for that matter.
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ROCK
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#383 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:20 pm

rockyman wrote:Couldn't the ridge moving west actually open up a hole between that high and the Bermuda high...and allow the storm to ride up the WEST side of the Bermuda high and into the Eastern Gulf?...By the way, the high is centered over Arkansas now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html



yes, give the models some time to latch on the current situation. Should see a better future set-up when we get some more runs. Most have lost it today except for the NAM. Didn't think I would ever say that about the NAM.... :lol:
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#384 Postby ronjon » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:21 pm

PTPatrick, you better hope that ridge doesn't move west - that's the protection against tropical cyclones. If the ridge moves west and high pressure builds into the eastern GOM, where is the weakness for the storm to move into? I'm afraid the central gulf coast area.
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#385 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:21 pm

uh-oh....i like ioki better lol
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#386 Postby flyingphish » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:22 pm

Wow ! A friend of mine landed yesterday on Cayman Brac for a one week dive trip...Yikes...Talk about bad timing. This thing looks like it is really firing up !!
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stormtruth
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#387 Postby stormtruth » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:22 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Heres hoping Debby does NOT do Mississippi...or Louisana, Alabama and Florida for that matter.


you forgot to protect Texas :)
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#388 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:22 pm

cloud tops are starting to warm this afternoon....
Last edited by gatorcane on Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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ROCK
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#389 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:23 pm

stormtruth wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:Heres hoping Debby does NOT do Mississippi...or Louisana, Alabama and Florida for that matter.


you forgot to protect Texas :)



Yeah thanks.... :lol:
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#390 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:23 pm

td at 5?
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Sanibel
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#391 Postby Sanibel » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:24 pm

I have a feeling the board is going to be busy in a few hours.
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PTPatrick
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#392 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:24 pm

Well guys, Debby already did Dallas...
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#393 Postby miamicanes177 » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:24 pm

fact789 wrote:td at 5?
no, it will take a good 12-18 more hours of this convection before that could happen.
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carve
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#394 Postby carve » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:26 pm

Let's definately hope it doesn't hit mississippi..(if it developes)!! :cry: i live in ohio and our church sent some of us down to help with clean-up after katrina....never have i seen so much destruction..the costal area of Long Beach miss. was gone... :cry:
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PTPatrick
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#395 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:27 pm

just kidding...about that texans...I have have people on bay between Galveston and Houston...I assure you I am not hoping this thing messes with texas...although I could live with another kennedy county hit if this thing has to take aim the US :)
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JonathanBelles
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#396 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:27 pm

could this be the beginning of the 2006 season?
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ROCK
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#397 Postby ROCK » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:29 pm

fact789 wrote:could this be the beginning of the 2006 season?



It has begun..
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PTPatrick
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#398 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:30 pm

For what its worth, I am not seeing that mcuh warming of the cloud tops...still some reds present on the last one I saw.
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TreasureIslandFLGal
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#399 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:30 pm

I too am slightly worried about an opening hole for it to follow up the west side of the bermuda high, but honestly it looks like a central northern gulf hit if it develops and moves rapidly. Now, if it moves a little slower, then it could be more of a NE texas hit. A very fast mover would favor eastern gom IMHO. A very slow mover, like that took 8 days plus would favor big bend to west coast FL since a low will be moving across southern states from rockies then and could pull something that might be drifting around in the gulf. But, anything that took that long may be contending with what might be coming across the atlantic by then.

I am personally thinking a strong cat 3 into MS/AL border area. sorry for anyone living there, but that is my gut feeling of where this will be heading in a few days - Thursday night landfall guess. Low shear, very warm SSTs. Hopefully not stronger, but storms seem to weaken a bit prior to making landfall in that area. I think it may peak as a weak 4.
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#400 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:31 pm

Hopefully we will get a floater over this soon!! The name of this thread may need to be also renamed real soon as well, as it's a bit vague...
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