Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2
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>>i now give this as much as a 0% chance of becoming a tropical depression
LMAO. It was never about today's convection which was a dry run. Some people were calling for a this or that, but IMHO tomorrow would be the first opportunity for the system to start feeding back (if ever). The energy is there. The upper environment offers some support (see Water Vapor imagery and also note the banding). We'll see. Coldest cloudtops today were around 12ish. Wait and see.
Steve
LMAO. It was never about today's convection which was a dry run. Some people were calling for a this or that, but IMHO tomorrow would be the first opportunity for the system to start feeding back (if ever). The energy is there. The upper environment offers some support (see Water Vapor imagery and also note the banding). We'll see. Coldest cloudtops today were around 12ish. Wait and see.
Steve
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miamicanes177 wrote:i now give this as much as a 0% chance of becoming a tropical depression
I have learned ignore such ignorant comments such as this. No comment...
New flare up just on the northern edge of where the MLC was located earlier. Let's see if it continues through the night. Like Steve said, today wasn't the day. If something happens, it'll be overnight tonight and tomorrow. Lots of energy is there.
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Convection is now near buoy station 42057. Early today things where calm at that buoy and pressures were steady.
Current conditons:
Winds from the east at 17.5 kts, with gusts of 19.4 kts.
Pressure is 29.93 in. and falling. Location is 17.60N - 80.75W.
Convection again appears to be increasing as well and is located just south of that buoy station.
Current conditons:
Winds from the east at 17.5 kts, with gusts of 19.4 kts.
Pressure is 29.93 in. and falling. Location is 17.60N - 80.75W.
Convection again appears to be increasing as well and is located just south of that buoy station.
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A small area of convection persists, but the general negativity is prevailing. It looks like it could make a run at forming, but can't overcome that general negativity. I think we are watching the season slowly turn favorable - but not yet.
The EPAC disturbance may have taken the energy from that area.
Meanwhile the wave ahead of 96L off Africa has suddenly fired up and now looks like the better system.
The EPAC disturbance may have taken the energy from that area.
Meanwhile the wave ahead of 96L off Africa has suddenly fired up and now looks like the better system.
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While, I agree that 96L does look like the better system. This disturbance would be the more immediate threat to populated areas should it get organized today. Convection continues to be on the increase and now the pressure stands at 29.91, a .02 drop in just a short period of time. I don't think this is dead yet.
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Oh and look:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
the comma (,) shape has returned.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
the comma (,) shape has returned.

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Biggest problem this system has had developing is shear.
Yesterdays shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-8.html
Todays shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
~ 10 knots less shear could make a difference. This area is getting in close enough that it would be nice to have an invest.
Yesterdays shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-8.html
Todays shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
~ 10 knots less shear could make a difference. This area is getting in close enough that it would be nice to have an invest.
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Nimbus wrote:Biggest problem this system has had developing is shear.
Yesterdays shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-8.html
Todays shear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF
~ 10 knots less shear could make a difference. This area is getting in close enough that it would be nice to have an invest.
Today's shear map you posted shows decreasing shear. unless I am reading these things wrong.
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Johnny wrote:Yep, convection is on the increase this morning which I think will only increase as the day goes on. The environment is moist around it and shear will be decreasing. Today is the day IMO. I would not for a second right this one off.
I agree, with the convection re-firing and the shear lessening it will have an opportunity today if the convection deepens and increases.
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Stormavoider wrote:I still think there is a surface low way south around 10N 77W. Last night ships south of the blob were reporting winds from the NE. You can see some sort of rotation down there.
This LLC has developed. My theory is that this LLC has been in place since yesterday. I think it has dominated the surface picture and has inhibited any surface formation under the existing convection to the north. It has been trapped from any northward movement by the mountains. I'm guessing it will cross Panama when it moves far enough west to clear the mountains. Then it will become a Pacific player. When it clears out the system of interest here may develop.
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Recon schedule came out this morning. No flights have been scheduled for the next two days. So TPC probably doesn't think much of this area yet.
724
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-083
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
724
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-083
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
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The way to tell if a disturbance is deepening is to look at the striated surface bands going into it to its east. If they "jack-up" in an insweeping diagonal to the east of the system the system is drawing in surface energy up and around the forming low. This one has ever so slight a hint of diagonal inflowing surface clouds.
Right now I would say it is a disturbance trying to develop but being kept in check and defeated by prevailing conditions.
Right now I would say it is a disturbance trying to develop but being kept in check and defeated by prevailing conditions.
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Westerly Shear looks to be increasing again this morning. Now 20kt to 30kts:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
The flare-up seeems to be cause by divergence aloft. Not much low-level convergence is present in this system. It will be hard to get a LLC to form that way.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html
The flare-up seeems to be cause by divergence aloft. Not much low-level convergence is present in this system. It will be hard to get a LLC to form that way.
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