Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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Steve
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#81 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:10 pm

>>i now give this as much as a 0% chance of becoming a tropical depression

LMAO. It was never about today's convection which was a dry run. Some people were calling for a this or that, but IMHO tomorrow would be the first opportunity for the system to start feeding back (if ever). The energy is there. The upper environment offers some support (see Water Vapor imagery and also note the banding). We'll see. Coldest cloudtops today were around 12ish. Wait and see.

Steve
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#82 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:20 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:i now give this as much as a 0% chance of becoming a tropical depression



As long as there is something there, we should probably watch it. It could all consolidate tomorrow.
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#83 Postby skysummit » Sun Aug 20, 2006 11:46 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:i now give this as much as a 0% chance of becoming a tropical depression


I have learned ignore such ignorant comments such as this. No comment...

New flare up just on the northern edge of where the MLC was located earlier. Let's see if it continues through the night. Like Steve said, today wasn't the day. If something happens, it'll be overnight tonight and tomorrow. Lots of energy is there.
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#84 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:11 am

Convection is now near buoy station 42057. Early today things where calm at that buoy and pressures were steady.


Current conditons:

Winds from the east at 17.5 kts, with gusts of 19.4 kts.

Pressure is 29.93 in. and falling. Location is 17.60N - 80.75W.

Convection again appears to be increasing as well and is located just south of that buoy station.
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#85 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 21, 2006 5:40 am

A small area of convection persists, but the general negativity is prevailing. It looks like it could make a run at forming, but can't overcome that general negativity. I think we are watching the season slowly turn favorable - but not yet.

The EPAC disturbance may have taken the energy from that area.


Meanwhile the wave ahead of 96L off Africa has suddenly fired up and now looks like the better system.
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#86 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:11 am

While, I agree that 96L does look like the better system. This disturbance would be the more immediate threat to populated areas should it get organized today. Convection continues to be on the increase and now the pressure stands at 29.91, a .02 drop in just a short period of time. I don't think this is dead yet.
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#87 Postby chrisnnavarre » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:14 am

Oh and look:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

the comma (,) shape has returned. :)
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#88 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:27 am

I still think there is a surface low way south around 10N 77W. Last night ships south of the blob were reporting winds from the NE. You can see some sort of rotation down there.
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#89 Postby Nimbus » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:27 am

Biggest problem this system has had developing is shear.

Yesterdays shear

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-8.html

Todays shear

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF


~ 10 knots less shear could make a difference. This area is getting in close enough that it would be nice to have an invest.
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#90 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:29 am

Unless this convection really deepens I just don't see it happening guys.
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#91 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:32 am

Nimbus wrote:Biggest problem this system has had developing is shear.

Yesterdays shear

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... sht-8.html

Todays shear

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF


~ 10 knots less shear could make a difference. This area is getting in close enough that it would be nice to have an invest.

Today's shear map you posted shows decreasing shear. unless I am reading these things wrong.
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#92 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:31 am

Shear is decreasing. I think today will be the day. Convection is on the increase. Keep an eye here folks.
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#93 Postby Bailey1777 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:57 am

WXMAN57 is there still potential with this one or is it time to move on?
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#94 Postby Johnny » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:59 am

Yep, convection is on the increase this morning which I think will only increase as the day goes on. The environment is moist around it and shear will be decreasing. Today is the day IMO. I would not for a second right this one off.
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#95 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:03 am

Johnny wrote:Yep, convection is on the increase this morning which I think will only increase as the day goes on. The environment is moist around it and shear will be decreasing. Today is the day IMO. I would not for a second right this one off.



I agree, with the convection re-firing and the shear lessening it will have an opportunity today if the convection deepens and increases.
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#96 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:17 am

Stormavoider wrote:I still think there is a surface low way south around 10N 77W. Last night ships south of the blob were reporting winds from the NE. You can see some sort of rotation down there.


This LLC has developed. My theory is that this LLC has been in place since yesterday. I think it has dominated the surface picture and has inhibited any surface formation under the existing convection to the north. It has been trapped from any northward movement by the mountains. I'm guessing it will cross Panama when it moves far enough west to clear the mountains. Then it will become a Pacific player. When it clears out the system of interest here may develop.
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#97 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:11 am

Recon schedule came out this morning. No flights have been scheduled for the next two days. So TPC probably doesn't think much of this area yet.

724
NOUS42 KNHC 211400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT MON 21 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z AUG 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
WVW
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#98 Postby Stormavoider » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:16 am

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#99 Postby Sanibel » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:18 am

The way to tell if a disturbance is deepening is to look at the striated surface bands going into it to its east. If they "jack-up" in an insweeping diagonal to the east of the system the system is drawing in surface energy up and around the forming low. This one has ever so slight a hint of diagonal inflowing surface clouds.

Right now I would say it is a disturbance trying to develop but being kept in check and defeated by prevailing conditions.
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#100 Postby Thunder44 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:24 am

Westerly Shear looks to be increasing again this morning. Now 20kt to 30kts:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

The flare-up seeems to be cause by divergence aloft. Not much low-level convergence is present in this system. It will be hard to get a LLC to form that way.
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