TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[storms in NC]

way to early to state that. and if it doesnt develope a quickly as some people are saying it will go more westward anyway still might recurve anyways but who knows its not even a system yet

No, not too early. Remember I talked about how the steering currents change from day to day? If you look at the low to mid-level flow today, then you'd suspect a westerly motion will continue.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby2.gif

Now look at the forecast for 2 days from today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby3.gif

Note the large gap between the split ridge in 48 hours. That's why the models are moving it out to sea. It's very far north already for being so far east. Not much chance of it reaching the Caribbean.

This is why it will turn north if it develops. But still to far to tell. If it slow up or if it speeds up it may miss the turn

[gatorcane]

way to early to state that. and if it doesnt develope a quickly as some people are saying it will go more westward anyway still might recurve anyways but who knows its not even a system yet

No, not too early. Remember I talked about how the steering currents change from day to day? If you look at the low to mid-level flow today, then you'd suspect a westerly motion will continue.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby2.gif

Now look at the forecast for 2 days from today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby3.gif

Note the large gap between the split ridge in 48 hours. That's why the models are moving it out to sea. It's very far north already for being so far east. Not much chance of it reaching the Caribbean.

This is why it will turn north if it develops. But still to far to tell. If it slow up or if it speeds up it may miss the turn

Every wave has moved West this summer, so if it stays week I say it should move west....

[HURAKAN]

Convection seems to be decreasing in its northern side, no surprise with all the dry air to the north. Nevertheless, the system seems to be developing banding features, especially to the south, and overall, it looks better organized.

[ThunderMate]

Well, the models are all saying it should be moving NW almost immediately....but it is still moving west at the moment....I still can hear all of the people saying ISABEL IS A FISH< NO WORRYS HERE. Models almost always trend west so lets just watch and see.

[gatorcane]

Well, the models are all saying it should be moving NW almost immediately....but it is still moving west at the moment....I still can hear all of the people saying ISABEL IS A FISH< NO WORRYS HERE. Models almost always trend west so lets just watch and see.

Without a defined LLC you can't pay attention to the models right now. The models assume it will acquire an LLC but if it does not this wave may just sneak underneath the weakness.

[bvigal]

HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS
TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 09 2003

THERE HAS BEEN SOME EROSION OF THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF ISABEL IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY RESTRICTED. DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE 5.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE 3-HR AVERAGE RAW ODT IS ALSO DOWN TO 5.4. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 115 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS...IS 295/12...ALTHOUGH OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS THE MOTION HAS BEEN TOWARD THE WEST. THIS IS QUITE POSSIBLY THE BEGINNING OF THE EXPECTED WESTWARD TURN...BUT THREE HOURS OF MOTION IS NOT ENOUGH TO BE SURE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEGRADATION OF THE EYE OBSERVED DURING THIS PERIOD. REGARDLESS...ISABEL IS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SHOULD FORCE THE HURRICANE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT... GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A BREAK IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 75 AND 80W THAT WOULD ALLOW A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON DAYS 4 AND 5 OF THE FORECAST.

FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DEFINED BY THE UKMET ON THE NORTH AND THE GFS/NOGAPS ON THE SOUTH. AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE UKMET HAS BEEN THE BEST PERFORMER SO FAR WITH ISABEL AND THE GFS HAS BEEN THE WORST. THE UKMET ALSO WAS THE BEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FOR FABIAN. THE INITIAL VORTEX FOR ISABEL IN THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY MUCH WEAKER THAN THE INITIALIZATION IN THE UKMET...ALTHOUGH I AM NOT CERTAIN THAT THIS EXPLAINS THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GIVEN THE RECENT MOTION...I HAVE NUDGED THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE NEW TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL...AND SLIGHTLY ON THE UKMET SIDE OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...SO LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND THESE ARE GENERALLY VERY DIFFICULT TO FORECAST.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0300Z 20.6N 48.8W 115 KT
12HR VT 10/1200Z 21.3N 50.4W 115 KT
24HR VT 11/0000Z 21.5N 52.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 11/1200Z 21.5N 53.9W 115 KT
48HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 55.5W 115 KT
72HR VT 13/0000Z 21.5N 58.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 14/0000Z 22.0N 61.5W 110 KT
120HR VT 15/0000Z 23.0N 65.0W 110 KT

[gatorcane]

wow isabel situation is very similar to this wave's it looks like

[bvigal]

wow isabel situation is very similar to this wave's it looks like

Actually I was pointing out that it wasn't (similar). There was no break in the ridge around 40W when Isabel was in that area, so she moved mostly west.

[ThunderMate]

I love looking back at those discussions on isabel seeing i went through her.

[gatorcane]

Look at ALL the dust it is about ready to run into..........that is definitely not what Isabel had to fight off....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

[cycloneye]

Look at ALL the dust it is about ready to run into..........that is definitely not what Isabel had to fight off....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/VIS/20.jpg

[drezee]

THis has been the year of the decoupled mid-level center. This is the first wave that I have seen that actually seems to have some vertical alignment. That alone argues gives it the best chance of any system so far. I agree with 57, if it pops they bye bye...but if it decouples then pops then maybe...

[gatorcane]

Cycloneye, that graphics really shows why the convection should start to get eroded later today - just like every other wave that has come off this year.

[Sanibel]

In any other year you would say this was a gimme...

[willjnewton]

can someone show me a infrared satelite picture about thats colorfull instead of a visible shot so I can see the Wave better???okay, thankyou

[ConvergenceZone]

Cycloneye, that graphics really shows why the convection should start to get eroded later today - just like every other wave that has come off this year.

Man, if it does, then I give up!!! I remember some folks saying that by the end of August, SAL won't be the issue...That's a huge amount of SAL and shows no sign of going away....

[cycloneye]

can someone show me a infrared satelite picture about thats colorfull instead of a visible shot so I can see the Wave better???okay, thankyou

[willjnewton]

okay thankyou cycloneye now I can see the wave better and it looks better organized...

[KWT]

The only thing i'll say about SAL is remember its also caught up in the trade winds and so is also heading westwards at the same sort of rate as the wave is and until it turns NW then it shouldn't have that much trouble and by which time the SAL may wel be reduced anyway to the point wher eit can cope. I suppose much will depend on where it forms its LLC, on that southern side or on the northern more rounded section. The northern section is a touch dry thanks to the SAL but the organisation of this system is one that if a LLC were to form it'd be upgraded for sure to a Td.

[miamicanes177]

Dr. Jeff Masters says this is already a tropical depression and it will be tropical storm Debby by Wednesday.