wxman57 wrote:mike815 wrote:way to early to state that. and if it doesnt develope a quickly as some people are saying it will go more westward anyway still might recurve anyways but who knows its not even a system yet
No, not too early. Remember I talked about how the steering currents change from day to day? If you look at the low to mid-level flow today, then you'd suspect a westerly motion will continue.
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby2.gif
Now look at the forecast for 2 days from today:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby3.gif
Note the large gap between the split ridge in 48 hours. That's why the models are moving it out to sea. It's very far north already for being so far east. Not much chance of it reaching the Caribbean.
This is why it will turn north if it develops. But still to far to tell. If it slow up or if it speeds up it may miss the turn