TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
meteorologyman
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 541
Joined: Wed Mar 15, 2006 6:48 pm
Location: Florida, Kissimmee/St.CLoud

#61 Postby meteorologyman » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:59 pm

Nice looking depression
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#62 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:07 pm

I knew I had been seeing a westerly motion.
Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#63 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:09 pm

i KNEW that somthing was going on with its eye! when i was watching diffrent loops, i was some disruption! now the USA and the Caribbean has somthing to look out for!
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#64 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:10 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i KNEW that somthing was going on with its eye! when i was watching diffrent loops, i was some disruption! now the USA and the Caribbean has somthing to look out for!


It's not a hurricane, its a TD..Hurricanes have eyes :)
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

#65 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:11 pm

also, is it me, or is the storm weakining?
0 likes   
Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Top
Toadstool
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 264
Joined: Mon Jul 31, 2006 4:46 pm
Location: Plantation, FL

#66 Postby Toadstool » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:13 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i KNEW that somthing was going on with its eye! when i was watching diffrent loops, i was some disruption! now the USA and the Caribbean has somthing to look out for!


I'm hoping it goes more north than west!
0 likes   
Top
miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

#67 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:14 pm

perhaps this could be the east coast storm that JB has been predicting
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#68 Postby WmE » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:14 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:also, is it me, or is the storm weakining?


I don't think so. The convection near the center has deepened, thus no weakening.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#69 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:14 pm

I don't by the NW path that some of the models are taking. I think the UKMET and NOGAPs should be considered as they move it west albeit weaker.
0 likes   
Top
miamicanes177
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1131
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2006 10:53 pm

#70 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:14 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 0000 060822 1200 060823 0000 060823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 22.6W 13.3N 24.4W 15.0N 26.1W 16.9N 28.1W
BAMM 12.0N 22.6W 13.7N 24.2W 15.7N 26.2W 18.0N 28.6W
A98E 12.0N 22.6W 12.5N 25.3W 13.3N 27.8W 14.3N 30.3W
LBAR 12.0N 22.6W 13.1N 25.0W 14.5N 27.5W 16.0N 30.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 0000 060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 30.3W 21.8N 34.8W 24.5N 39.4W 27.4N 43.2W
BAMM 20.0N 31.1W 23.4N 36.2W 26.2N 41.3W 29.8N 45.4W
A98E 15.8N 32.6W 18.2N 37.7W 21.3N 42.6W 25.7N 46.3W
LBAR 17.5N 32.5W 20.3N 37.4W 23.7N 41.9W 30.4N 47.7W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 54KTS 61KTS 61KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 22.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 20.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 17.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146005
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:34 pm

Image

00:00z Models Graphic.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#72 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:35 pm

I see no evidence TD #4 will turn to the NW anytime soon after my investigations - can somebody explain why using sat pics or other visuals as backup? Based on some water vapor loops, one is below, the subtropical ridge above TD #4 is not retreating to the east at all. The flow is pretty solid from East to West where TD #4 is right now....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#73 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image

00:00z Models Graphic.


already the models are off as it is moving west at 15mph...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#74 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:40 pm

The southward relocation will make some models change I would think. Potential more westerly track, at least in the short term= higher SST, and more distance from SAL.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#75 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:41 pm

It lost a half of a degree of latitude between 5pm and 8pm too.

Hmmm.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34039
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#76 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:41 pm

I'm in agreement closest to the yellow model, but someone south before a sharp turn northwest then north.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Lowpressure
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2032
Age: 58
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 9:17 am
Location: Charlotte, North Carolina

#77 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:42 pm

Brent wrote:It lost a half of a degree of latitude between 5pm and 8pm too.

Hmmm.


NHC stated relocation.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#78 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:43 pm

That does not look like a system moving NW.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#79 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:45 pm

Normandy wrote:That does not look like a system moving NW.


The subtropical ridge above TD #4 (Azores High) has been so strong this whole season (its partly the reason for all the African Dust). What makes us think it will suddenly collapse just in time for our first TD.....hmmm
0 likes   
Top
Josephine96

#80 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:45 pm

Looks more west than NW. Also looks like it may be Debbie already or getting pretty close..

Shame they don't have planes that can go this far out :wink:
0 likes   
Top
Locked

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cpv17, pepeavilenho and 52 guests