TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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meteorologyman
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#61 Postby meteorologyman » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:59 pm

Nice looking depression
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SouthFloridawx
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#62 Postby SouthFloridawx » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:07 pm

I knew I had been seeing a westerly motion.
Image
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Evil Jeremy
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#63 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:09 pm

i KNEW that somthing was going on with its eye! when i was watching diffrent loops, i was some disruption! now the USA and the Caribbean has somthing to look out for!
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#64 Postby tgenius » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:10 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i KNEW that somthing was going on with its eye! when i was watching diffrent loops, i was some disruption! now the USA and the Caribbean has somthing to look out for!


It's not a hurricane, its a TD..Hurricanes have eyes :)
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#65 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:11 pm

also, is it me, or is the storm weakining?
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#66 Postby Toadstool » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:13 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:i KNEW that somthing was going on with its eye! when i was watching diffrent loops, i was some disruption! now the USA and the Caribbean has somthing to look out for!


I'm hoping it goes more north than west!
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#67 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:14 pm

perhaps this could be the east coast storm that JB has been predicting
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#68 Postby WmE » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:14 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:also, is it me, or is the storm weakining?


I don't think so. The convection near the center has deepened, thus no weakening.
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#69 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:14 pm

I don't by the NW path that some of the models are taking. I think the UKMET and NOGAPs should be considered as they move it west albeit weaker.
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#70 Postby miamicanes177 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:14 pm

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060822 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060822 0000 060822 1200 060823 0000 060823 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.0N 22.6W 13.3N 24.4W 15.0N 26.1W 16.9N 28.1W
BAMM 12.0N 22.6W 13.7N 24.2W 15.7N 26.2W 18.0N 28.6W
A98E 12.0N 22.6W 12.5N 25.3W 13.3N 27.8W 14.3N 30.3W
LBAR 12.0N 22.6W 13.1N 25.0W 14.5N 27.5W 16.0N 30.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 43KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060824 0000 060825 0000 060826 0000 060827 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.7N 30.3W 21.8N 34.8W 24.5N 39.4W 27.4N 43.2W
BAMM 20.0N 31.1W 23.4N 36.2W 26.2N 41.3W 29.8N 45.4W
A98E 15.8N 32.6W 18.2N 37.7W 21.3N 42.6W 25.7N 46.3W
LBAR 17.5N 32.5W 20.3N 37.4W 23.7N 41.9W 30.4N 47.7W
SHIP 54KTS 61KTS 61KTS 58KTS
DSHP 54KTS 61KTS 61KTS 58KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.0N LONCUR = 22.6W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 20.0W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.2N LONM24 = 17.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 90NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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#71 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:34 pm

Image

00:00z Models Graphic.
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#72 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:35 pm

I see no evidence TD #4 will turn to the NW anytime soon after my investigations - can somebody explain why using sat pics or other visuals as backup? Based on some water vapor loops, one is below, the subtropical ridge above TD #4 is not retreating to the east at all. The flow is pretty solid from East to West where TD #4 is right now....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
Last edited by gatorcane on Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#73 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:36 pm

cycloneye wrote:Image

00:00z Models Graphic.


already the models are off as it is moving west at 15mph...
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#74 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:40 pm

The southward relocation will make some models change I would think. Potential more westerly track, at least in the short term= higher SST, and more distance from SAL.
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#75 Postby Brent » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:41 pm

It lost a half of a degree of latitude between 5pm and 8pm too.

Hmmm.
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#76 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:41 pm

I'm in agreement closest to the yellow model, but someone south before a sharp turn northwest then north.
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#77 Postby Lowpressure » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:42 pm

Brent wrote:It lost a half of a degree of latitude between 5pm and 8pm too.

Hmmm.


NHC stated relocation.
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#78 Postby Normandy » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:43 pm

That does not look like a system moving NW.
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#79 Postby gatorcane » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:45 pm

Normandy wrote:That does not look like a system moving NW.


The subtropical ridge above TD #4 (Azores High) has been so strong this whole season (its partly the reason for all the African Dust). What makes us think it will suddenly collapse just in time for our first TD.....hmmm
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#80 Postby Josephine96 » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:45 pm

Looks more west than NW. Also looks like it may be Debbie already or getting pretty close..

Shame they don't have planes that can go this far out :wink:
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