TD #4 East Atlantic,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[gatorcane]

so everybody do I deserve some credit here - I just didn't see the NW projected path and now the NHC is following what I said....

You know...you seem to need a lot of pats on the back...since you always point out when you were right about something...

You have some kind of complex we need to know about?

edit: no just like to be heard that is all

[Windtalker1]

so everybody do I deserve some credit here - I just didn't see the NW projected path and now the NHC is following what I said....

You know...you seem to need a lot of pats on the back...since you always point out when you were right about something...

You have some kind of complex we need to know about?

Be NICE

[bob rulz]

so everybody do I deserve some credit here - I just didn't see the NW projected path and now the NHC is following what I said....

You know...you seem to need a lot of pats on the back...since you always point out when you were right about something...

You have some kind of complex we need to know about?

Be NICE

We're all just joking around.

[boca]

Air Force Met is just being funny thats all.

[Air Force Met]

so everybody do I deserve some credit here - I just didn't see the NW projected path and now the NHC is following what I said....

You know...you seem to need a lot of pats on the back...since you always point out when you were right about something...

You have some kind of complex we need to know about?

Be NICE

That WAS nice...you should see nasty.

[willjnewton]

can someone show me one more another updated colorfull Infrared satelite imagery of td 4 once again to see if its refireing convection???okay, thankyou

[gatorcane]

I think that that discussion was pretty alarming, where is everybody? I think they were convinced this thing was gone fishing......

[benny]

Hmm.. it is way too early to think of this as a threat to the Lesser Antilles. Any model that initializes the storm has it moving well north of there. I think everyone is jumping the gun. Let's see what the next few forecasts do. If they keep shifting leftward and are south of 20n50w.. then we are talking.. but that 120 hour position doesn't scare me one bit. I have a feeling Stewart is a bit of a wishcaster at times.

[boca]

I remember last year and your right airforce your pretty tame right now.

[Air Force Met]

I remember last year and your right airforce your pretty tame right now.

I am resting while I can. Storms mean 18-20 hour days for me and time sleeping in my office.

[gatorcane]

can someone show me one more another updated colorfull Infrared satelite imagery of td 4 once again to see if its refireing convection???okay, thankyou

Its 6 hours old but here you go:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

[curtadams]

can someone show me one more another updated colorfull Infrared satelite imagery of td 4 once again to see if its refireing convection???okay, thankyou

Will = you can find those pics at the Navy site http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html Click on 04L.NONAME towards the left. and then on the GEO -IR green button on the right.

Incidentally, it's not refiring.

[Robjohn53]

I remember last year and your right airforce your pretty tame right now.

I am resting while I can. Storms mean 18-20 hour days for me and time sleeping in my office.

Well rest well i am sure you'll need it and take a pillow with ya.

[gatorcane]

Hmm.. it is way too early to think of this as a threat to the Lesser Antilles. Any model that initializes the storm has it moving well north of there. I think everyone is jumping the gun. Let's see what the next few forecasts do. If they keep shifting leftward and are south of 20n50w.. then we are talking.. but that 120 hour position doesn't scare me one bit. I have a feeling Stewart is a bit of a wonderful forecaster at times.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If anything right now a track northeast and north of the Leeward islands does look more likely - I think the Leeward Islands are okay with this one.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Wonder how many times the track will be adjusted left and right (hopefully not too far Left). Maybe we can get a good ole millitary marching cadence going starting with ya left foot....1. Left-Right Left-Right 1-2-Left-and 3-4I said a Left 1 Left 2 1-2 Left

[SouthFloridawx]

[temujin]

Looking good and looking like it's headed W.

[LAwxrgal]

This thing's pretty big... About three or four Hurricane Iokes could fit inside that mass of clouds... Once this thing gets its act together it could be a large storm.

[boca]

Thats a cool sat pic of TD4!

[MWatkins]

I ALLLMOST made a post earlier tonight that it would be interesting to see what happens when polar opposites take succeeding forecast shifts: "Mr. Conservative" Franklin vs. "Bust the Envelope, Out of the Box" Stewart. Wish I had the time to do that.

And yep, tropical weather fans are not dissapointed.

The breakdown of the subtropical ridge in all of the modeling seems suspect...as it is occuring from the bottom side as opposed to erosion from shortwaves to the north.

But it is hard to see exactly what features are conspiring to bust down the ridge bottomside-up using the vapor imagery or the limited weather data.

In the end this is probably going to run NW into the open Atlantic...but I would venture to guess mr Stewart would have liked to shove the track even further west...but forecasting procedures won't allow that.

Look...I have ALWAYS said Stacy should start the first 2 or 3 forecasts on every system. He takes everything into account and doesn't bow to the will of the modeling.

These forecasts...with systems in the eastern Atlantic where the upper features are simply not observed well...are the hardest to make.

MW