#160 Postby MWatkins » Mon Aug 21, 2006 10:15 pm
I ALLLMOST made a post earlier tonight that it would be interesting to see what happens when polar opposites take succeeding forecast shifts: "Mr. Conservative" Franklin vs. "Bust the Envelope, Out of the Box" Stewart. Wish I had the time to do that.
And yep, tropical weather fans are not dissapointed.
The breakdown of the subtropical ridge in all of the modeling seems suspect...as it is occuring from the bottom side as opposed to erosion from shortwaves to the north.
But it is hard to see exactly what features are conspiring to bust down the ridge bottomside-up using the vapor imagery or the limited weather data.
In the end this is probably going to run NW into the open Atlantic...but I would venture to guess mr Stewart would have liked to shove the track even further west...but forecasting procedures won't allow that.
Look...I have ALWAYS said Stacy should start the first 2 or 3 forecasts on every system. He takes everything into account and doesn't bow to the will of the modeling.
These forecasts...with systems in the eastern Atlantic where the upper features are simply not observed well...are the hardest to make.
MW
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