cpdaman wrote:WXMAN57
how strong is your confidence in the models or of the confidence in the models certainity of the steering patterns a few days from now.
i know u said " right now there is no data to support a threat to the u.s , but basically what i'm asking is how confident are u that the steering pattern the models are basically making there path predictions on are etched in stone, or not likely to change drastically.
it may be vague, but i'm asking you cause well, your a pro
I'm quite confident, presently, that Debby will turn north well east of the east U.S. Coast. Take a look at how sharp a 500mb trof the GFS is predicting in 5 days near 60W. Look at the wind flow away from the east U.S. Coast:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif
ECMWF shows a similarly-strong trof around 60W in 5 days:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/f120.gif
There's nothing to indicate that the ridge north of Debby will build west and block a turn. Debby is already moving WNW, indicating that the ridge to the north isn't THAT strong already.
Well, time for bed. Have to get up at 5am for work.
