Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#341 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:26 pm

Sheared disturbances with such dogged, robust convection in this scenario dissipate very rarely. But 2006 seems to be a negative year that would work in favor for dissipation. However, this disturbance seems to be in a diurnal max pulse with an LLC that has shot out ahead of the convection. That's a good sign of storm potential.
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
boca
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6369
Age: 60
Joined: Mon Dec 15, 2003 8:49 am
Location: Boca Raton,FL

#342 Postby boca » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:27 pm

That's funny. :lol:
0 likes   

jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7192
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

#343 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:27 pm

cycloneye wrote:
seaswing wrote:
crown wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:Really? ALL mets were bullish?


Ah hem ... guys .. a cultural note here ... "bullish" in Barbados means a homosexual act.


LMAO :roflmao:


Please,let's post informative posts.


that post actually was very informative especially if anyone is planning to go to barbados. In fact that post was alot more informative than the "i agree" "thanks" etc posts that are on the board everyday.
0 likes   

User avatar
seaswing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 561
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 11:56 am
Location: High Springs, FL/just NW of Gainesville

#344 Postby seaswing » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:28 pm

Sorry, it was funny though...
0 likes   

Scorpion

#345 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:30 pm

sponger wrote:I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer! Here is my new scale

>50 Enjoy your day, all is well

50-100 Log on and check out whats brewing

100-200 Somthings up, time to check in and see what the pro mets are saying.

200-500 You missed the boat and may need to stock pile supplies or warn relatives

500 or more. Call in sick drop all your plans and tune in until you pass out at 4:30 in the morning


I know right. During Chris I logged on at around 2 am August 3 and saw that the number of people on was less than 70. I immediately knew something was wrong. Indeed Chris was dead.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#346 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:31 pm

LLC thickening in surface convection! All systems go!


Track 280*
0 likes   

User avatar
seaswing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 561
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 11:56 am
Location: High Springs, FL/just NW of Gainesville

#347 Postby seaswing » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:32 pm

sponger wrote:I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer! Here is my new scale

>50 Enjoy your day, all is well

50-100 Log on and check out whats brewing

100-200 Somthings up, time to check in and see what the pro mets are saying.

200-500 You missed the boat and may need to stock pile supplies or warn relatives

500 or more. Call in sick drop all your plans and tune in until you pass out at 4:30 in the morning


Oh now thats funny and very true! :D
0 likes   

User avatar
ConvergenceZone
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5196
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 1:40 am
Location: Northern California

#348 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:35 pm

Sanibel wrote:LLC thickening in surface convection! All systems go!


Track 280*



I hope you are right, but not holding my breath..
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#349 Postby fci » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:38 pm

sponger wrote:I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer! Here is my new scale

>50 Enjoy your day, all is well

50-100 Log on and check out whats brewing

100-200 Somthings up, time to check in and see what the pro mets are saying.

200-500 You missed the boat and may need to stock pile supplies or warn relatives

500 or more. Call in sick drop all your plans and tune in until you pass out at 4:30 in the morning



Might I add:
With your head on the keyboard repeatedly typing rwroifhewopneoneovnepvnowevnwevlknewo;vnweovweov
0 likes   

User avatar
cinlfla
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 687
Joined: Mon Aug 16, 2004 7:16 pm
Location: Titusville, Florida on the Spacecoast

#350 Postby cinlfla » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:40 pm

Does anyone have the new model plots for 97L


TIA
0 likes   

User avatar
mj
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 24
Joined: Wed May 04, 2005 8:27 pm
Location: Cape Coral, Fl.

#351 Postby mj » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:41 pm

0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#352 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:41 pm

cinlfla wrote:Does anyone have the new model plots for 97L


TIA


As of 12z... they will update again in an hour or so.

Image
0 likes   
#neversummer

Stormcenter
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6684
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
Location: Houston, TX

#353 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:43 pm

mj wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif


Where are the other models?
0 likes   

Praxus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 473
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:19 pm

#354 Postby Praxus » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:44 pm

sponger wrote:I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer!


Hmm that's a good idea ! I can't think of a better hurricane threat indicator (for the US) then the number of people online at storm2k. Someone should write a little app that polls it every half hour or so. Be a cool screen saver as well.
0 likes   

Windsurfer_NYC
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 233
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2006 3:27 pm
Location: New York, NY

#355 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:48 pm

the 12Z run of the GFDL brings it more inline with the other models, putting 97L over the straits of FL in 5 days with a NW heading.....

Code: Select all

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    97L

INITIAL TIME  12Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            11.9             60.5           280./19.0
   6            12.5             61.5           303./11.4
  12            13.0             62.7           292./13.2
  18            13.5             64.2           287./14.9
  24            13.8             65.8           280./16.2
  30            14.1             66.9           285./10.7
  36            14.5             67.9           291./11.0
  42            14.9             69.1           291./11.5
  48            15.5             69.7           311./ 8.5
  54            16.3             70.3           322./10.2
  60            16.8             71.1           305./ 8.8
  66            17.6             72.1           308./12.1
  72            18.4             73.2           307./13.7
  78            19.3             73.9           321./10.8
  84            19.8             74.5           308./ 7.8
  90            20.5             75.4           309./10.7
  96            21.0             76.4           295./10.2
 102            21.5             77.2           300./ 9.6
 108            22.0             77.9           307./ 7.9
 114            22.4             78.8           295./ 9.7
 120            23.0             79.9           298./11.5
 126            23.5             80.8           297./ 9.5
Last edited by Windsurfer_NYC on Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
BreinLa
ChatStaff
ChatStaff
Posts: 1967
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 12:18 pm
Location: Lafayette, La.
Contact:

#356 Postby BreinLa » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:48 pm

HEY, didn't you guys read in the last 15 minutes mods asking you not to make useless posts, I suggest you pay attention or you won't have this board to post on at all. We have a chatroom if you want to chat go there.
0 likes   

User avatar
Innotech
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1031
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
Contact:

#357 Postby Innotech » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:48 pm

fci wrote:
sponger wrote:I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer! Here is my new scale

>50 Enjoy your day, all is well

50-100 Log on and check out whats brewing

100-200 Somthings up, time to check in and see what the pro mets are saying.

200-500 You missed the boat and may need to stock pile supplies or warn relatives

500 or more. Call in sick drop all your plans and tune in until you pass out at 4:30 in the morning



Might I add:
With your head on the keyboard repeatedly typing rwroifhewopneoneovnepvnowevnwevlknewo;vnweovweov


my everyday ritual lol. Thats the position I often find myself in in the morning. UnlesS I manage to fall into bed.
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#358 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:50 pm

BreinLa wrote:HEY, didn't you guys read in the last 15 minutes mods asking you not to make useless posts, I suggest you pay attention or you won't have this board to post on at all. We have a chatroom if you want to chat go there.


Ok, call me dumb, but maybe we are not sure what constitutes useless. Maybe it's just me.
0 likes   

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4423
Age: 43
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

#359 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:51 pm

Windsurfer_NYC wrote:the 12Z run of the GFDL brings it more inline with the other models, putting 97L over the straits of FL in 5 days with a NW heading.....

Code: Select all

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    97L

INITIAL TIME  12Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            11.9             60.5           280./19.0
   6            12.5             61.5           303./11.4
  12            13.0             62.7           292./13.2
  18            13.5             64.2           287./14.9
  24            13.8             65.8           280./16.2
  30            14.1             66.9           285./10.7
  36            14.5             67.9           291./11.0
  42            14.9             69.1           291./11.5
  48            15.5             69.7           311./ 8.5
  54            16.3             70.3           322./10.2
  60            16.8             71.1           305./ 8.8
  66            17.6             72.1           308./12.1
  72            18.4             73.2           307./13.7
  78            19.3             73.9           321./10.8
  84            19.8             74.5           308./ 7.8
  90            20.5             75.4           309./10.7
  96            21.0             76.4           295./10.2
 102            21.5             77.2           300./ 9.6
 108            22.0             77.9           307./ 7.9
 114            22.4             78.8           295./ 9.7
 120            23.0             79.9           298./11.5
 126            23.5             80.8           297./ 9.5


Finding a weaker ridge
0 likes   

User avatar
Damar91
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 551
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 1:06 pm
Location: Coral Springs, FL

#360 Postby Damar91 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 12:52 pm

Destruction, what would a weaker ridge mean?
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: LarryWx, weeniepatrol and 60 guests