Invest 97L: Comments, Sat Pics, Models Thread #3

[Sanibel]

Sheared disturbances with such dogged, robust convection in this scenario dissipate very rarely. But 2006 seems to be a negative year that would work in favor for dissipation. However, this disturbance seems to be in a diurnal max pulse with an LLC that has shot out ahead of the convection. That's a good sign of storm potential.

[boca]

That's funny.

[jlauderdal]

Really? ALL mets were bullish?

Ah hem ... guys .. a cultural note here ... "bullish" in Barbados means a homosexual act.

LMAO

Please,let's post informative posts.

that post actually was very informative especially if anyone is planning to go to barbados. In fact that post was alot more informative than the "i agree" "thanks" etc posts that are on the board everyday.

[seaswing]

Sorry, it was funny though...

[Scorpion]

I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer! Here is my new scale

>50 Enjoy your day, all is well

50-100 Log on and check out whats brewing

100-200 Somthings up, time to check in and see what the pro mets are saying.

200-500 You missed the boat and may need to stock pile supplies or warn relatives

500 or more. Call in sick drop all your plans and tune in until you pass out at 4:30 in the morning

I know right. During Chris I logged on at around 2 am August 3 and saw that the number of people on was less than 70. I immediately knew something was wrong. Indeed Chris was dead.

[Sanibel]

LLC thickening in surface convection! All systems go!


Track 280*

[seaswing]

I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer! Here is my new scale

>50 Enjoy your day, all is well

50-100 Log on and check out whats brewing

100-200 Somthings up, time to check in and see what the pro mets are saying.

200-500 You missed the boat and may need to stock pile supplies or warn relatives

500 or more. Call in sick drop all your plans and tune in until you pass out at 4:30 in the morning

Oh now thats funny and very true!

[ConvergenceZone]

LLC thickening in surface convection! All systems go!


Track 280*

I hope you are right, but not holding my breath..

[fci]

I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer! Here is my new scale

>50 Enjoy your day, all is well

50-100 Log on and check out whats brewing

100-200 Somthings up, time to check in and see what the pro mets are saying.

200-500 You missed the boat and may need to stock pile supplies or warn relatives

500 or more. Call in sick drop all your plans and tune in until you pass out at 4:30 in the morning

Might I add:
With your head on the keyboard repeatedly typing rwroifhewopneoneovnepvnowevnwevlknewo;vnweovweov

[cinlfla]

Does anyone have the new model plots for 97L


TIA

[mj]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_97.gif

[Brent]

Does anyone have the new model plots for 97L


TIA

As of 12z... they will update again in an hour or so.

[Stormcenter]

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_97.gif

Where are the other models?

[Praxus]

I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer!

Hmm that's a good idea ! I can't think of a better hurricane threat indicator (for the US) then the number of people online at storm2k. Someone should write a little app that polls it every half hour or so. Be a cool screen saver as well.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

the 12Z run of the GFDL brings it more inline with the other models, putting 97L over the straits of FL in 5 days with a NW heading.....

Code: Select all

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    97L

INITIAL TIME  12Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            11.9             60.5           280./19.0
   6            12.5             61.5           303./11.4
  12            13.0             62.7           292./13.2
  18            13.5             64.2           287./14.9
  24            13.8             65.8           280./16.2
  30            14.1             66.9           285./10.7
  36            14.5             67.9           291./11.0
  42            14.9             69.1           291./11.5
  48            15.5             69.7           311./ 8.5
  54            16.3             70.3           322./10.2
  60            16.8             71.1           305./ 8.8
  66            17.6             72.1           308./12.1
  72            18.4             73.2           307./13.7
  78            19.3             73.9           321./10.8
  84            19.8             74.5           308./ 7.8
  90            20.5             75.4           309./10.7
  96            21.0             76.4           295./10.2
 102            21.5             77.2           300./ 9.6
 108            22.0             77.9           307./ 7.9
 114            22.4             78.8           295./ 9.7
 120            23.0             79.9           298./11.5
 126            23.5             80.8           297./ 9.5

[BreinLa]

HEY, didn't you guys read in the last 15 minutes mods asking you not to make useless posts, I suggest you pay attention or you won't have this board to post on at all. We have a chatroom if you want to chat go there.

[Innotech]

I can always tell when somthing is brewing by the number of members online! I want to get a task bar pop up that will feed it streaming to my computer! Here is my new scale

>50 Enjoy your day, all is well

50-100 Log on and check out whats brewing

100-200 Somthings up, time to check in and see what the pro mets are saying.

200-500 You missed the boat and may need to stock pile supplies or warn relatives

500 or more. Call in sick drop all your plans and tune in until you pass out at 4:30 in the morning

Might I add:
With your head on the keyboard repeatedly typing rwroifhewopneoneovnepvnowevnwevlknewo;vnweovweov

my everyday ritual lol. Thats the position I often find myself in in the morning. UnlesS I manage to fall into bed.

[Damar91]

HEY, didn't you guys read in the last 15 minutes mods asking you not to make useless posts, I suggest you pay attention or you won't have this board to post on at all. We have a chatroom if you want to chat go there.

Ok, call me dumb, but maybe we are not sure what constitutes useless. Maybe it's just me.

[DESTRUCTION5]

the 12Z run of the GFDL brings it more inline with the other models, putting 97L over the straits of FL in 5 days with a NW heading.....

Code: Select all

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST    97L

INITIAL TIME  12Z AUG 24

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT)

   0            11.9             60.5           280./19.0
   6            12.5             61.5           303./11.4
  12            13.0             62.7           292./13.2
  18            13.5             64.2           287./14.9
  24            13.8             65.8           280./16.2
  30            14.1             66.9           285./10.7
  36            14.5             67.9           291./11.0
  42            14.9             69.1           291./11.5
  48            15.5             69.7           311./ 8.5
  54            16.3             70.3           322./10.2
  60            16.8             71.1           305./ 8.8
  66            17.6             72.1           308./12.1
  72            18.4             73.2           307./13.7
  78            19.3             73.9           321./10.8
  84            19.8             74.5           308./ 7.8
  90            20.5             75.4           309./10.7
  96            21.0             76.4           295./10.2
 102            21.5             77.2           300./ 9.6
 108            22.0             77.9           307./ 7.9
 114            22.4             78.8           295./ 9.7
 120            23.0             79.9           298./11.5
 126            23.5             80.8           297./ 9.5

Finding a weaker ridge

[Damar91]

Destruction, what would a weaker ridge mean?