Tropical Depression #5,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Scorpion

#321 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:17 pm

Looking at the GFDL, the storm looks to be oriented towards the northeast. Big Bend?
0 likes   

User avatar
seaswing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 561
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 11:56 am
Location: High Springs, FL/just NW of Gainesville

#322 Postby seaswing » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:17 pm

:eek: Holy Crap :eek:
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#323 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:18 pm

charley2?
0 likes   

Matt-hurricanewatcher

#324 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:18 pm

The fast lady has not song yet. Don't trust the models on winds on a system this weak in that far out. But watch it closely because it could or it could not.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38107
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#325 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:18 pm

cycloneye wrote:NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE (AL052006) ON 20060825 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060825 0000 060825 1200 060826 0000 060826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 65.2W 14.1N 67.0W 15.0N 68.9W
BAMM 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 65.4W 14.5N 67.2W 15.4N 69.2W
A98E 13.0N 63.2W 13.4N 66.5W 14.0N 69.4W 15.0N 71.8W
LBAR 13.0N 63.2W 13.7N 66.1W 14.2N 69.1W 14.8N 72.2W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 41KTS 50KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060827 0000 060828 0000 060829 0000 060830 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.2N 71.1W 19.3N 75.9W 21.2N 80.4W 22.3N 84.5W
BAMM 16.7N 71.3W 19.4N 75.8W 21.7N 79.6W 23.5N 82.7W
A98E 16.4N 73.9W 19.3N 78.6W 21.8N 83.3W 24.1N 87.4W
LBAR 15.9N 75.1W 19.1N 80.1W 23.1N 84.3W 23.2N 85.7W
SHIP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS
DSHP 59KTS 75KTS 87KTS 93KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 63.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 12.3N LONM12 = 60.4W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 11.4N LONM24 = 56.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 150NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 155NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Yikes at 93 kt.

I am not surprised though.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 23006
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

#326 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:18 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
Sanibel wrote:GFS 144 hour model doesn't show any Highs in the Gulf. It shows a recurve synoptic.


Beat me too it..


You're looking at the wrong level, look up in the mid levels and upper levels. Here's the mean flow 700-400mb for 12Z Tuesday:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby23.gif
0 likes   

User avatar
seaswing
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 561
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 11:56 am
Location: High Springs, FL/just NW of Gainesville

#327 Postby seaswing » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:19 pm

fact789 wrote:charley2?


But a bit more north...too early to tell though
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#328 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:20 pm

i said i had a bad feeling yesturday. forecast #1 later.
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

#329 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:20 pm

It appears by next week,TD 5 will be hurricane Ernesto in the GOM.Got my fingers crossed he doesn't make a beeline for LA :(
0 likes   

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

#330 Postby jasons2k » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:20 pm

Scorpion wrote:Looking at the GFDL, the storm looks to be oriented towards the northeast. Big Bend?


I highly doubt it, even though anything can happen, I just don't see it plowing into that ridge
0 likes   

Rainband

#331 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:21 pm

seaswing wrote:
fact789 wrote:charley2?


But a bit more north...too early to tell though
Thats one model and the mets explained why it is behaving the way it is. This will not be a Florida storm. I will eat all the crow in the world if it is.
0 likes   

Josephine96

#332 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:22 pm

If he decides to come Fla's way.. he better not make a beeline for a Tampa/St Pete landfall.

Arguably a Tampa/St Pete landfall is #2 doomsday scenario behind New Orleans
0 likes   

gopherfan21
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 54
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2006 12:08 pm
Location: Minneapolis, MN

#333 Postby gopherfan21 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:22 pm

Actually...we better hope the GFS IS right and it goes onto a path into the big bend/Apalachicola area.

Anything west of Mobile would be a horrible place for this to hit...N.O./MGC area because of last year, Western Gulf because of the oil rigs and refineries.....bad if it hit Pensacola because of Ivan/Dennis....hit on Mexico is just not likely...
0 likes   

Rainband

#334 Postby Rainband » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:22 pm

W are all going to be riding bikes if this storm Goes in The GOM
0 likes   

JonathanBelles
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 11430
Age: 35
Joined: Sat Dec 24, 2005 9:00 pm
Location: School: Florida State University (Tallahassee, FL) Home: St. Petersburg, Florida
Contact:

#335 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:22 pm

Josephine96 wrote:If he decides to come Fla's way.. he better not make a beeline for a Tampa/St Pete landfall.

Arguably a Tampa/St Pete landfall is #2 doomsday scenario behind New Orleans


theyve done specials, it could be as bad!
0 likes   

Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#336 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:23 pm

Just did a comparison of the 500mb ridge from the GFS...using last nights 00z run and today's 18z run.

The slide to the east continues. Whereas it looked last night like a monster ridge would be set up over the GOM and the steering would be STX or most probably MX...now the GFS is coming around (as it always overplays these ridges in these situations) and sliding it eastward more. The ridge is still anchored over FL. I never bought the ridge over the GoM like it was dipicted last night in the 00z run at 168 hours...that's just rare for the summer.

Old 29/18Z

New 29/18Z

Old 30/12Z

New 30/12Z
0 likes   

jwayne
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 242
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 12:33 pm

#337 Postby jwayne » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:24 pm

Rainband wrote:W are all going to be riding bikes if this storm Goes in The GOM
\

I couldn't help it, that made me laugh out loud. I guess I won't be laughing if I have to go 30 miles to work on my bike.
0 likes   

User avatar
all_we_know_is_FALLING
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 417
Joined: Fri Jun 09, 2006 3:06 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow...
Contact:

#338 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:24 pm

fact789 wrote:
Josephine96 wrote:If he decides to come Fla's way.. he better not make a beeline for a Tampa/St Pete landfall.

Arguably a Tampa/St Pete landfall is #2 doomsday scenario behind New Orleans


theyve done specials, it could be as bad!


Let's not get into that on this thread.
Not everyone will agree on that and yada yada.
0 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10375
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

#339 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:24 pm

They tend not to follow the contour of the High, but sort of compromise into the middle of the gradient. Too close to N.O. for comfort if this pans out.
Last edited by Sanibel on Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
HouTXmetro
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3949
Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: District of Columbia, USA

#340 Postby HouTXmetro » Thu Aug 24, 2006 8:25 pm

eats popcorn and waits Image
0 likes   
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hurricaneman, MetroMike, Stratton23 and 48 guests